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To: cherrypitter who wrote (44834)	5/17/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: GlobalMarine	Respond to of 95453

Thanks for posting the Barron's article, Richard. Rand

To: cherrypitter who wrote (44834)	5/17/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

RE: The Barron's article. Interesting text, but as to Iraq, the writer got it all wrong. He writes: Iraq's "current production of 2.6 million barrels a day is less than half its 1990 pre-Gulf War levels." Take a look at this historical Iraqi oil production chart: eia.doe.gov When did Iraq produce more than twice as much oil as today's 2.6 million bbls/day?? The pre-Gulf War level was 3 MMBD (on a yearly basis), and by July 1990, the month before the Gulf War started, oil production had reached 3.5 MMBD. Far from "more than twice as much oil as today"! "With proper investment, Iraq could double its production in less than two years" This is simply just not true. EIA says: "In May 1997 Director General for Planning at the Iraqi Oil Ministry was quoted in the trade press as stating that 3 MMBD of production capacity could be reached within 1 year, 3.5 MMBD within 3-5 years, and 6 MMBD in less than a decade AFTER the lifting of U.N. sanctions". "Iraqi Oil Minister Fadhil al-Chalabi estimated that Iraq would need at least $5 billion of foreign investment during the first 2-3 post-sanction years in order to bring the country's oil output back to pre-Gulf War levels. He also projected that $30-$50 billion of foreign investment would be required to bring capacity up to 6 MMBD." Note that this is Iraq's own very optimistic view, in reality it will take even longer time and require more $$. Since these statements were made 2 years ago Iraq's oil industry has deteriorated further, it's in a lamentable state according to U.N's technical team. 8 months ago Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and others reported that Iraq had pushed its oil sector "to the brink" in order to maximize oil production and exports. Since then Iraq has pushed it even harder! Iraq has pushed production to levels higher than are considered proper by reservoir engineers, resulting in damage to Iraq's oil industry.