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To: Dale Baker who wrote (6125)	5/16/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

Not a MSFT groupie ot TA expert, but i like MSFT for a "safe" return of 20% to 40% by year end. MSFT current price: 76 7/8 5 year historical PE range : 22 to 83 3 year historical PE range: 39 to 83 current PE: 60.50 Downside seems limited here, nice place to start a position, to add on any further weakness, and buy on the return trip up. Mike

To: Dale Baker who wrote (6125)	5/16/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: CatLady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

That would've caught the low points pretty well. (Buying MSFT on 20% dips) System test with an arbitrary exit at 110% of the 89 day EMA, Entry at 80% of the highest close in the previous 180 days. Trying other values from 75% to 85% either produced larger drawdowns or missed opportunities. ==== System Report - Pullback 20% System Parameters System notes Enter long CLOSE < .80 * HHV(CLOSE, 180) Close long CLOSE > 1.1 * Mov(C,89,E) Initial equi 5000 Positions Long Entry trade Open Entry trade 1 Exit trade p Open Exit trade d 1 Entry commis 25 points Exit commiss 25 points Interest rat 0% Margin req. 50% System Report - Pullback 20% MICROSOFT CORP Trades ... --- Out 1/2/92 7/28/93 0.00 0.00 Enter long 1 Long 7/28/93 4/26/94 372.04 0.35 Close long --- Out 4/26/94 10/5/95 0.00 0.00 Enter long 2 Long 10/5/95 10/30/95 213.91 0.70 Close long --- Out 10/30/95 11/21/95 0.00 0.00 Enter long 3 Long 11/21/95 2/12/96 039.57 0.75 Close long --- Out 2/12/96 12/26/97 0.00 0.00 Enter long 4 Long 12/26/97 1/29/98 323.13 0.00 Close long --- Out 1/29/98 10/8/98 0.00 0.00 Enter long 5 Long 10/8/98 11/24/98 703.82 0.00 Close long --- Out 11/24/98 5/14/99 0.00 0.00 System Report - Pullback 20% MICROSOFT CORP Results Total net pro 25652.47 Open position N/A Percent gain/ 513.05 Annual percen 69.61 Initial inves 5000.00 Interest earn 0.00 Current posit Out Date position /24/98 Buy/Hold prof 160095.88 Days in test 2690 Buy/Hold pct 3201.92 Annual B/H pc 434.46 Total closed 5 Commissions p 250.00 Avg profit pe 5130.49 Avg Win/Avg L N/A Total long tr 5 Total short t 0 Winning long 5 Winning short 0 Total winning 5 Total losing 0 Amount of win 25652.47 Amount of los 0.00 Average win 5130.49 Average loss N/A Largest win 11703.82 Largest loss 0.00 Average lengt 64.40 Average lengt N/A Longest winni 190 Longest losin 0 Most consecut 5 Most consecut 0 Total bars ou 1550 Average lengt 258.33 Longest out p 475 System close 0.00 Profit/Loss i 100.00 System open d -646.88 Reward/Risk i 97.54 Max open trad -1221.86 Buy/Hold inde -83.98