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Strategies & Market Trends : Argentine stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (281)	5/16/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 331

We are perpetuating a gambling mentality that is similar to the 1920s. I read somewhere recently that 15,000 new Internet trading accounts are being opened every week. That is frightening. As he should be, very soon most stock market hens (i.e. gurus), will be out of a job., as people decide that their decisions as to where to invest is no worse than the "pros"... particularly when people have more time in their hands to do reasonable research.... (and the tool to do it with), namely.... "The Internet". I am not saying that Bear markets have disappeared, or that a sudden crash could not happen. However comparing today's overall market conditions with the 1920's (or a crash of such proportions), is somehow alarmist. Particularly when it relates to the US market. Why ? I say so because the US technology (and related companies), are only beginning to "service" the world, specific companies will have increments in their business for years to come. in addition, the current sea of liquidity coming into the market (due to the baby boomers appetite, or need), to invest seems to be insatiable, and my opinion is that this will continue for another ten years, (and others seem to think longer than that). This would prevent a major crash as many would see the breaks as "buying opportunities". At what point ceases to be so? I do not know. In my eyes, the key is interest rates, which in turn it will depend on inflation.... was last Friday a warning shot of higher inflation ? I do not really know, my feel is NOT for now. In short, where else is one going to place long term funds, so far, I think equities seem to be the best place.... Emerging markets ? Not I, the continuous risk of devaluation diminishes its attractiveness, perhaps the exception is Argentina... I think the only possible "best" solution, is invest, and then watch like a hawk.... with the finger on the sell button, at the very first sign of trouble... go liquid, reassess, and then buy again, if warranted.... For a different view of things.... Consider the Wired 40 Index.... (which I have followed on and off for about a year...(since it was created).... It is all a matter of perspectives. techstocks.com gffunds.com I do not suggest the "fund" itself, but an individual selection of companies either that are part of the index, or similar in characteristics. My opinion only.

To: EPS who wrote (281)	5/17/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Tom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 331

Thank you, Victor. Always like reading Biggs' opinions. He appears to be broadcasting the company line. I say that only because his remarks appear unusually subdued. Maybe it's just me. There are some extreme measures being conducted that will keep me holding my S&P put-options. I jumped into the Philippines, a little, but more non-performing loans have been surfacing there. I closed-out the same day I posted a warning over at SI Hong Kong. I guess, all-in-all, I'm of much the same opinion as you and Juan. Though I have gone a bit heavy into the S&P puts. I, of course, will never let go of all my Perez;) who, by the way, recently rid themselves of 85% of their YPF interest. Further to my domestic concerns, the Fed has conducted seven (7) coupon passes since 04/19. Mr. Greenspan's foot appears locked-down on the accelerator. No one in the world can match the rapid broad-money (M2) and credit growth sourcing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. All the more important that the G-7, IMF, et al attempt to keep a cap on the price of gold. I also favor this by Gerard Jackson at The New Australian: "Regardless of what Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities claims, the Fed's policy of using the money supply to keep interest rates down is the real reason why a major correction is unavoidable. I'm not impressed by his so-called view of 'mega-markets' either." Mr. Jackson is not one to mince words. <g> oub.com.sg Table 2, at the bottom of the page, provides some indication of the East Asian recovery. Think what you will of China's numbers. Hope you guys will continue to do well. Best, Tom p.s. Came upon this: Lisbon picked top destination for 1999 by Conde Naste Traveler. Never been there, but have wanted to go for a long while. -----