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Technology Stocks : USWeb (USWB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gregory Seward who wrote (901)5/16/1999 4:09:00 PM
From: Rick  Respond to of 1188
 
ok. let's try to get things back on track here, and invite people that have something to say about USWB into the conversation.

simple fact:

since IPO, insider selling has been consistent in USWB. month after month without a break insiders are selling shares to the public. if you want to see the record go to edgar online.

simple question:

if insiders have consistently unloaded shares at every price level since the IPO, why should i believe that that will not continue ? why should i get into a stock that i know i will be competing with insiders to get out at a good price in the future ?

old saying:

when you sit down to a poker game and look around at the other players and you don't know who the fool is, it's probably you.

analogy:

as an investor in USWB you are playing poker with other investors, including insiders who get shares on the cheap as part of the employment contract.

let's break down the group as follows:

1) insiders
2) traders
3) long term investors

given that insiders are showing a healthy and consistent propensity to sell shares, which group is most likely to end up being the fool when it gets played out ?

you make the call.

jbd.



To: Gregory Seward who wrote (901)5/16/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: Rick  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1188
 
Greg -

since you seem confused about whether i am taking a solid position on USWB, I will be try to be more clear:

1) Long term USWB will not justify it's current market capitalization. It is a good long term short, for those with the stomach to accept the great risks inherent in shortselling popular stocks.

2) Short to Intermediate term, at today's prices, it's a decent long trade for a few points. The higher the price goes, though, the more insiders that are ready to hit the market with shares (based on the consistent history of selling), so you have to be nimble. Contract announcements and general excitement about Press Releases have been good selling opportunities in the past and will likely continue.

In general, though, I think there are better opportunities to make money in the market, long and short. I do not currently have a position. Above 30, I will look seriously at shorting it. Any future action of course will require looking at the circumstances.

I've never met a consulting firm that proved to be a good, consistent, long term investment. I doubt that US Web will be any different.

cheers. rick.