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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (40034)	5/16/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Don, Notice the <g> after my 'new era' comment. I also am a believer in Ying-Yang, equilibrium, and actions that are met with equal and opposite reactions. I view this current market as our attempt to forestall, through extraordinary artificial interventive means (printing currency, excessive lowering of interest rates, coupon passes, etc.) the natural process of free markets reaching their equilibriums. I believe this distortion is what's referred to as 'the new era' <g> Although these short term interventions have caused significant and continuing asset appreciation, we're already seeing the law of diminishing returns taking effect, just look at the yields in the bond market. I think this market's going to reach equilibrium, we're just artificially stalling the process. That being said, a trend is a trend, and I agree that attempting to time the reversal can be costly until the next trend is established. This particular upleg on the market has been perplexing to me in that the markets have held well above their 200 day moving averages for an extraordinary length of time, even when they've crossed down over their 50 DMA's which has been a sure sign of a reversal in 9 month intervals for 5 years running now, most noticably in the NASDAQ. Maybe the extended drop below the 200 DMA during last fall's correction distorted this moving average.

To: donald sew who wrote (40034)	5/16/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 94695

>>>> May or may not be an impending disaster, may or may not be an equity bubble. Maybe this is a new era where the rules have changed.<<<< Yes and no, is my view point,as I do see times of dramatic correction,but they will followed by wild rallies,as too many now are learning how to play this game and with the revolution in Electronic Trading and the frightening prospect of 24 hour trading I think it will become tougher and tougher for longterm purist to simply invest and forget. Market timing is a tough game,and the old guard denounce the practice,but for those who can learn timing will be the bigger winners in the longterm in the future market is my guess. I realize I will hear the cries of I bought AMZN 2 years ago and simply held and I am rich and I am going to get richer,however,I see that as not in the future,and I am commiting myself to move in and out of the market,this is ONLY my opinion,the how I see matters at this time.Max90