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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (40350)	5/16/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

From the Business Week article cited by kha vu: Investors are coming to expect surprises from some companies, so they are losing their oomph. LU has reported 12 positive surprise in the the last 12 quarters. Now, the stock tends to rally the week ahead of the earnings announcments about 7% according to LIMresearch.com an Austin investment research firm. And once Lucent releases earnings the stock actually falls. ...once the earnings are out, the stock is down about half of the time... This is for the 'hi profile' golden stocks like WCOM, MSFT, DELL, etc. but for less known stocks like HLIT, GMST, PBY, ETEK, QLGC,FOSL you can still get a pop before, the day of... and day after... the earnings report. It took Business Week all this time to learn what we knew for about 6 months. We haven't had hi-profile earnings plays for a while now and the few we did have like ANF, WCOM, GPS, and YUM did not perform as expected so now they too will be deleted. But there are still scores of companies that have not had 12 earnings surprises or even 5. There are companies that are just coming out of negative quarters into their first positive quarter. The public at large do not know how to play the earnings.. I saw one stock selection site that said "buy one day before earnings and hold through earnings".. They insist on stocks like DELL and then wonder why the stock is down after earnings. Take a look at GILTF for example: it was posted on the calenendar on May 6, 1999.. The price at the time was 49 1/4. We called a buy signals and the price went to close at 57 7/8 a day BEFORE earnings came out. Then earnings came out on the 13th and what a shock!!! the stock opened at 57 1/2 and closed at 52 3/8. But it was already sold before that. Who would hold a stock that appreciates that much before earnings through the earnings report? And when GILTF is down, it is said, it beat but was down. oh my! DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME -------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- ----------- 5/14/1999 55 1/16 52 3/8 55 3/8 52 205,200 5/13/1999 52 3/8 57 1/2 58 1/4 52 450,300 5/12/1999 57 7/8 54 58 1/2 54 415,200 5/11/1999 54 1/8 51 1/2 54 3/4 51 1/4 614,000 5/10/1999 50 7/8 49 1/8 51 1/8 49 209,400 5/07/1999 49 49 50 49 126,400 5/06/1999 49 11/16 50 50 1/4 49 1/4 174,600 We are way ahead of the analysts, figure it will take them another 2 or 3 years to figure out 1) we don't need their hi profile stocks like ORCL, MSFT 2) We know that they go down after earnings (i.e. YHOO, AOL, AMZN), but what of the incredible gains in anticipation? Especially the stocks that are fairly young and just beginning their earnings accleration. So we don't have a GPS or S.. We have instead a BKE, DEBS, CATH or CHRS. Do you really care if you make 5-10% out of BKE instead of S? Okay so we don't do WCOM, there is still CLTNF or EXTR. It's best that they don't know.

To: Susan G who wrote (40350)	5/16/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

I already have puts in select financials, brokerages.. Looking for puts in BRCM, MFNX and RMBS. Some of these companies have gotten way ahead of themselves.