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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14102)	5/16/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Robert, if you look at an index, say the IIX, the nets are holding their trendline. Also, before Friday's action, the stochastics on some of the leaders-- AMZN, CMGI and even little NTBK-- had turned UP (Using 21 on the stochastic). Is there any contrary technical evidence? TIA

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14102)	5/16/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert: Was that a 18 month buy and hold strategy? Or, did you trade the "inuts" over the last 18 months? And if a buy and hold strategy, would you recommend to someone to buy your stock basket now and hold? Regards, LG

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14102)	5/16/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert, Yes I did say that before and I was wrong, and I have not problem with that. Hey, it wont be the last time I will be wrong. I could be wrong, and as I did say that I need further confirmation and a break of the TRIANGLE to the downside would probably do it. If it breaks to the upside I will be wrong again when it comes to the DOT.X. The internets will still be around and will be the new norm. I am not arguing that, but my position is that sooner or huge P/E's will be history for the internets as a whole. Of course there will be new technology within the internets which will create mini-manias, something like IOM did. That will continue to happen. My position is very simple and that the internet in general will no longer be new, it will become the norm with the companies faced with more and more competition worldwide. As competition rises, profit margins decline. Competition will probably be even stronger than other manias since the internet is so global. The internet is a wonderful tool on a global perspective, permitting other countries less fortunate than us to compete. For example the auto industry involves huge capital investments and resources, where the internet only requires basicly brains. The U.S. had advantages in the auto industry especially when it comes to raw material resources, but the U.S. will not have as much of an advantage with the internet. Sooner or later the specific price mania of internet stocks will end, but I may be wrong again with the timing. seeya

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14102)	5/16/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 99985

Robert and Thread, Well, no one can call the top of anything with 100% accuracy. The facts are that the major internets have put in intermediate term tops (AOL, CMGI) and are in the "symmetrical triangle" pattern that they have made at least twice before. AMZN is in danger of breaking a 8 month trendline with any more downside. When we look back, AMZN was one of the first to ignite this "mania" and they seem to be the first to fall. In my opinion, the internets are at a technical crossroads and further deterioration in price will signal big trouble. Now does that mean I think we have the BK before us? NO. It's too easy. Typical manias (IOM for example) show a peak, with a ~50% retrace down, and then another attempt at new highs. If new highs are not made, and a second peak is formed to early (and lower), then the mania is over. Don is right in saying that this process will take several months. I don't think he has ever said that it has already topped. Personally, I would not be invested in any internets unless I could watch them all day, every day. What will happen next week? Becuase of the strong recent uptrends, I have the S&P, DOW and Transports entering oversold very quickly (if not already there). Any more selling in these three will be bad. The NASDAQ can tank another 100 pts before it reaches my oversold area. Be mindful that Monday is the day for huge selloffs (statistically) if it's going to happen. Monday, 8/31/98 & 10/27/97 were both the third days of ~+10% selloffs. USE CAUTION TOMORROW!!! I'm going to venture a guess that the worst will be priced into the market by mid-day Tuesday which will probably mean some pretty healthy selling up until then. The FOMC will either bias or do nothing. If they do or say nothing, we should rally into expiration. DELL and AMAT report this week and if we get 2 good reports with a strong BTB, the techs could rally. At this point, all my bets are hedged and will react to any news this week accordingly. I will say that I plan to be either completely out of the market or short a couple of weeks before the next CPI/PPI/FOMC event because I think the market will price in the worst before and rally after the data from severely oversold conditions. My position on bonds remains unchanged... Message 9395722 Just my opinion. Chris