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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26289)	5/21/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike, I believe NOW it is imperitive to be on HIGH ALERT status as BKX and DOT are again providing immediate warning signal to entire markets and resting at lower band of supports. I believe once we crack through 597 DOT we will reach 550 like a magnet and airpatch down to test 500-510 lower support . BKX 1 more close below 880 and 840 and 800 next stop. These two indices will have even more damaging weight on the heavies now as SPU is having trouble taking out 1370 and now lower highs 1355. DOW resistance at 10930 and weary support at 10830-10850. A close below 10830 and we immediately test 10330 within few trading days. In my opinion, RISK/REWARD IS 3/1, 21% DOWNSIDE RISK TO 7% UPSIDE REWARD across all indices. If I am wrong, and we go on to set new highs one last time, ultimate top is 11,900 DOW and 1460 SPU. The risk is clearly on the downside. I am amazed at the complacency of this thread as you have floated your trial balloon about the dangers the market faces between now and the next two months. Looking forward to your updated supports and targets. Best. J.T.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26289)	5/25/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

<<I would sell on highs like 1360 area and buy around 1328 to short again below 1322 for a test of 1292 in near future. For this test 888 on BKX and 2500>> <<I would like that 892 on BKX would result in DOW going down to 10500 and 1292 to surely tested, I would play the market safe and not try to bottom fish, I will cautiously trade indexes only I would expect that DOW BKX and cyclicals interest rate sensitive stocks to be hardest hit where as Techs may soon find a bottom, I would like to sell out of the money calls and buy puts on any rallies to 1355 area, a close above 1364 in present environment is difficult. DOT has taken out 625 and will probably find this test of 600.8 once again if worries multiply DOT may retest 540 area, I would trade DOT long above 632 and short below 597....>> The above post reminds me of the levels and inter-relations.. read it and enjoy it, it looks as if it was written today morning, the inter-rlations worked with accuracy.... Monday, May 17 1999 1:18AM ET Reply # of 26539 CPI has dented the market, two important lements in this number are housing cost increases and apparels, I would think that CPI number may have shown a sharp increase but several other times before this number has spooked the market. One thing thattroubles me is the core inflation that I know is something that Fed looks at it very closely although PPI has helped to allay the fears but CPI will keep this issue in the forefront until next series of economic numbers, I would think that markets will remain very jittery and AG who had cut the rates last year in anticipation of global meltdown may decide to surprise the market by letting the market know of his bias towards tightening, I would think that Fed would like to send feelers of concern without acting on the interest rate front. I would suggest that benign wage inflation and this huge gap between output and capacity on domenstic front alogwith weak European performance may restrain Fed, but a shift in stance is a 1500 point potential hit in my opinion, I have taken a very defensive posture and has been cautious for last few weeks and will continue to do that until things completely change. I think that real money could be made on back of volatility, i would sell on highs like 1360 area and buy around 1328 to short again below 1322 for a test of 1292 in near future. For this test 888 on BKX and 2500 on Comp will be decissively taken out, I can see that these worries can take market to as low as 1980 on NDX, so for us as day trader we have to have this cautious stance and nimble approach to trade the voltility we will see as I have said before a pattern like 890-990 band and I would like to trade this band from lows to highs... They would like the bond yields and the markets internal mechanism to take care of this threat of rising prices, the yields have moved up quite a bit and probably wil hit now 6.05%, I am looking now at 117-118 area where I see a support for the bonds. Since last one week I have been highlighting the possibilty of strong numbers on Thursday after PPI I thought we are home that decieved me but I kept my discipline to wait for the Friday opening. One thing is certain that now after CPI this is not a market to go long until 1378 is taken out, we have seen a drop from old highs and inability to close above that level, I would like that 892 on BKX would result in DOW going down to 10500 and 1292 to surely tested, I would play the market safe and not try to bottom fish, I will cautiously trade indexes only I would expect that DOW BKX and cyclicals interest rate sensitive stocks to be hardest hit where as Techs may soon find a bottom, I would like to sell out of the money calls and buy puts on any rallies to 1355 area, a close above 1364 in present environment is difficult. DOT has taken out 625 and will probably find this test of 600.8 once again if worries multiply DOT may retest 540 area, I would trade DOT long above 632 and short below 597....