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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (2789)	5/17/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

CC went very well. Everyone should listen to the replay starting today at noon, 1-800-475-6701 x 450450. A couple of points: SEPR's additional expense for Nori from JNJ's departure will be about $12.5 million this year and a little less next year, an amount they felt they could easily absorb. Second, originally, both JNJ and SEPR were to dedicate 250 salespeople to the Nori effort. SEPR -- if they do not partner -- still intends to field the same force; they said that 100% of half the revenues will in effect mean the same to them as 50% of twice the revenues. In other words, they claim this change won't affect them. I think this is putting the best face on the situation. They also said that without JNJ or another major partner, their strategy would clearly be different, ie developing a niche drug for their respiratory sales force to offer, instead of using mass marketing (estimated cost of $500 million to establish a $1 billion brand). This last answer was elicted by old friend David Maris. TB called it "insightful". Generally, the analysts seemed to accept the explanation that JNJ just doesn't have the presence in respiratory therapeutics to make Nori a part of their plans.

To: BMcV who wrote (2789)	5/17/1999 10:07:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Here's my quick take on the nori releases and the CC: 1. They showed the drug is comparable to Claritin, but with faster onset (20 minutes vs. 160 minutes). The studies were not powered to show overall superiority over Claritin, and they didn't. Trials were multi-arm (different doses), which reduces power. No toxicity issues were revealed. One of the two week trials didn't quite reach significance at end of trial, because of growing placebo effect. (On the CC, they said Claritin was approved with 5 day trials). They were confident they would get once-a-day dosing. 2. They plan on spending around $25m on trials both this year and next, so the impact of J&J not paying half is not substantial. 3. J&J royalty appears to be single digits - 6% "wasn't far off." 4. They will obviously explore partnering (Glaxo came up several times, but they said there are 3-4 others). If they don't partner, they will just go for a bigger stake in a much smaller pie - won't try to compete w/ mass marketing etc. 5. Seemed fairly upbeat, but a little shaken, which is understandable given they only found out about this on Friday. 6. Maris was on the call - asked a reasonable question and was answered without any cursing that I could hear. <g>. I bought a little more this morning. Peter