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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59528)	5/17/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Some symptoms, a full blown case, what's the diff? picky, picky, picky <gg>

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59528)	5/17/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Merritt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: NFLD's starting to move...again. This is a company that's involved in bringing an artificial blood substitute (PolyHeme) to market. With about 14.1mm shares outstanding, it has a market cap of just over $200mm...for a product that could sell in the billions. I said, could. They recently, 5-4, gave an up-date of their current, expanded Phase III study of the use of PolyHeme in trauma patients, with positive results on patients survivability. In the Phase II study, they infused patients with an amount sufficient to replace the entire blood supply...there were no adverse reactions or complications. It's a compelling story...longer shelf life, sterile (no chance of contracting HIV, hepatitis, etc.), and universality (no blood typing). The company was founded in 1985, and traded as high as $45 during the biotech bubble in 1992. It's come a long way since then. Last year, the FDA told NFLD they'd have to conduct more studies before the FDA would accept an NDA for PolyHeme, which is the reason for this current PIII, or PIIIb. With the positive reports, I would expect some analyst up-grades, or perhaps a new NDA filing. There is competition in the field, most notably a privately held company called BioPure. They have an artificial blood substitute approved for marketing, by the FDA, for use by vets with animals, and are currently engaged in a PII/III study for use in humans undergoing a specific type of surgery. Because of the way the trials are designed, it's possible that the FDA may give them approval before NFLD. (The former Surgeon General of the U.S. is also on their Board of Directors...which probably doesn't hurt <ng>) However, an OK would be for a very specific application, and would not qualify it for general trauma. I've spoken to an officer of BioPure, and was favorably impressed, both by the spokesperson, and the intelligent manner in which they were proceeding with their product. My impression was that they weren't going to focus on the human market as a replacement for blood transfusions, but were pointing farther down the road to using their product as a therapeutic agent. At present, they apparently lack the manufacturing capacity to sell major amounts of product, and are pretty much limiting their marketing to some specialized emergency animal treatment clinics. At any rate, it's something of a horse race (I probably should have started this with that phrase, to pique your interest <g>), with a very large purse. IMHO, NFLD will be first to the trauma market, which will be the largest initial market...but BioPure could do some bumping down the stretch. But then again, it's Biotech, so anything could happen...but I do think it's something worth checking. In the last couple of years, I've been buying in the $12 area, and selling on weakness above $15. I plan to hold this time, FWIW.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59528)	5/17/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, More Andy Beyer. search.washingtonpost.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59528)	5/18/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, Dell's eps barely made the official, guided lower, estimates and missed all the whispers. The co. said in Jan that this quarter would suck and suck it did. Though hitting some numbers most cos. would be happy with, they were very shabby for a stock selling at 75 times eps. Of course, Dell buyers have never been interested in valuation or buying an operating business. It is the good vibes, dude, that makes this bowwow go up in price. <g> However, it is going to be hard for even the biggest Dell fan to get anything but bad ju-ju and lots of questions out of this report. Here are some quicktake notes: 1. This was easily the worst sequential increase in net income in some time. 2.1% from 4Q to 1Q compares fairly weakly to the 7% of last year. Revenues fared better, and the 7% sequential increase was certainly in line with the mid single digit guidance given by the co. Did somebody at the firm accidentally tell the truth or did they low ball the seqential revenues # and then got surprised? I vote for the second, but I would love to see Dell moving toward the former. 2. Basic shares were up from last quarter. Is that called a negative buyback? Makes no matter. The shareholders of this co. will never notice how their money is being spent. <g> Diluted shares were down probably because mgt. exercised options and then dumped the stock ASAP to the buyback monies. 3. Gross margin was down 4%from both 1Q and last year's 4Q. The price wars are taking a bite, but, so far, not a big one. Net margin was also down 4.8% from 1Q, but only a negligible amount from last year. Mgt. should be commended for these #s. 4. For the first time in several quarters, Dell did not run a receivables dump to goose the #s. 5. Dell does seem to have gotten a bit tardy in paying its bills vs. 4Q. They still would have made the rounded up eps number even without the extra interest, so I suspect this was just a fluke of the business. 6. When is the last time Dell has had to round down on their eps numbers? I never remember anything but upward rounding. Maybe that's why they call the Austin suburb Rounding Rock. <g> In all, a brave little quarter for Dell the co., a disaster for Dell the bloated stock. And, the deterioration in eps growth rate, which will certainly accelerate this year, speaks of the true problems about to unfold. The puts look golden on this turkey. Good Luck, MB 3. 2.