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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger Schelling who wrote (3722)	5/17/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: Raybert	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13157

While we're waiting, I'd like to raise another issue and conduct an informal poll. I have a pet theory that the reason ACTV has been so quiet about a roll-out date is because TCI has many, many old set-top boxes that only do digital TV. Announcing a new product with the geewhiz appeal of HyperTV would make it much more difficult to move out these old boxes. I live in an area served by TCI. To date we had a phone call a little over a week ago, a mail promo early last week, and a blow-in in the paper today. I want to know if others who live in a TCI served area are seeing the same thing. Thanks.

To: Roger Schelling who wrote (3722)	5/17/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: StaggerLee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13157

The latest Bridge report neglects to factor in the fully reserved deferred tax asset in its valuation model. ACTV has about $20 million of NOL's and is projected to generate another $20 million in losses in 1999 and 2000 (per Bridge). Presuming these NOL's (which have been expensed) can be recovered, then Bridge should show substantially higher income (I think?). Excluding tax expense in 2003, the Bridge model suggests a current valuation of $58.07 to $59.96, based my my gyrations. But then again, the Bridge report also appears to neglect Samuel's appreciation bonus, which would be about $.80 a share over the period being evaluated, or about $.16/year EPS. That knocks about $3 off their valuation projection at a P/E of 20. Then there's the employee SAR plan (896,000 shares @$40/share appreciation equals $38 million of expense to the P&L, or about $1.09/share over the 5 years; say $.27/share against our EPS per year). At 20 times earnings, that's another $5.40 off the share price projection. Fun with numbers. So it looks like their model gives a price target between $15 and about $52. I sure wish Bridge would explain the numbers rather than simply spamming these boards with their hype and then disappearing. For what it's worth, I kind of like the way the Bridge model is laid out. Now, it's just a question of which assumptions to use.