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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (14225)	5/17/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG: The NAZ rebounded strongly from the morning lows. Right now it is attempting to break the symmetrical triangle on the up side. If it is successful, there is a strong possibility that we will attempt to make a new record high. Regards, Jaime

To: HairBall who wrote (14225)	5/17/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: j.o.	Respond to of 99985

LG - Just took a look at L3's chart on Treasury yields. I am trying to make sense of the move from an Elliot Wave perspective, and have made a few notes: Wave 1: Start around Dec 10, 1998. End Jan 10th...about 1 month Move from (eyeball) 4.93->5.35 = 42 basis points Wave 2 consolidation through Feb 1st Wave 3: Feb 1st -> March 3rd (1 month) Move in rates from 5.04 -> 5.72 = 68 basis points Wave 4: Consolidation from Mar 5 -> Apr. 10th Wave 5: April 10th -> present (already longer than wave 1 and 3) Move in rates from 5.40-> 5.95 = 55 basis points. If we touch 5.98%, then wave 5 is 1.382 x as long as wave 1. This seems to me to be a potential target (knowledgeable Elliot fans are welcome to clarify any errors here!). The other target would be wave 5= wave 3, so a target of roughly 6.08%. In terms of the wave count of wave 5, I suggest that we are now seeing the top of wave 3. We should consolidate here, with room on the downside to 5.7%, and then try to make one more move higher. Thanks L3 for the chart! BTW - I still have us within subwave 3 of the superwave 5 here on the S&P500. We should be heading into sub-subwave 3 now, having completed 1 and 2 (just now). If these levels hold, the wavecount looks fine. On the Dow it looks like we are now completing #4 of 5 subwaves of the subwave 3 on superwave 5. That would indicate that the next upmove will be fairly limited in the Dow, whereas the S&P would have much more upside. Perhaps this indicates a rotation back into the techs? In any case, this wavecount still indicates a LOT more upside. I will have to revise if we don't hold these levels, but today's snapback gives me the impression that we might do ok. BTW - I am not a wave expert...any constructive comments are very welcome. j.o.