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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (14249)	5/17/1999 10:19:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG; Looks like a GAP down in the morning is set up, then a wait and see on the FED, what ever knee jerk the market does on that news will be short lived ( unless there is a rate hike ) , but even a rally on good news will not go very far, today's activity in spite of the late rally still cost a lot of people a lot of money, and the average price for the day was not good at all. Also the bullishness left just after 3pm , while she didn't sell off the Market Makers shorted for the Gap down, on top of that Futures dropped right at the close shutting out the sell programs. CNBC and all the pundits are going mad trying to do damage control so their sponsors can distribute more stock before the fall. This market will not make any real new highs until rates go down, so even if the Fed don't jack rates up, they are still to high for the price of tulip stocks. The crossed sword has not fixed itself , until it does the market is in trouble. Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (14249)	5/18/1999 1:56:00 AM
From: Tae Spam Kim	Respond to of 99985

That seems to be the consensus. No rate change, but a hint or two about a future one.

To: HairBall who wrote (14249)	5/18/1999 8:43:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, perhaps we will get the bias shift; it would take away some of the uncertainty that besets the bond market. but i still believe that there is not yet enough evidence for the fed to even decide on a change in bias. after all, monetary policy can not influence oil prices. the strongest argument for a bias shift would be the need to curb money supply growth and maybe an effort to dampen stock market speculation. on the other hand,the effects of the financial crisis of last summer/autumn have only just now abated, and the fed may well decide that it would be too risky to upset the apple-cart so soon. regards, hb

To: HairBall who wrote (14249)	5/18/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

As per one of my previous messages .... am I right in thinking that if the Fed doesn't change (overwhelming consensus), then a shift in bias will mean that the bond market will feel that the Fed is worried about inflation and sell off, unless it feels the Fed is on top of inflation in which case it will strengthen????. And if the Fed doesn't change bias then everythings hunky dory .... except it may mean they are not on top of things which will get everyone worried !!. Is this a non-event or am I missing something ?? ** Kathleen Hayes just covered the matter ..... TIA Stephen