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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26331)	5/18/1999 7:01:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 50167

A wonderfully presented post..... GZ

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26331)	5/18/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal, Thanks for a very informative post. As I understand, nobody really expects a rate hike today, but a change in bias is quite possible, and some even look for it. A rate change will be a huge surprise, and I gather that your post is not refering to it, but to the possibility of change in bias. I agree with your 1318 key support. I have two trend lines at 1313.5 and 1319 (cash). the former from the 10/28 and 3/3 lows, and the latter from the 3/23 and 4/19 lows. 1295 cash is the next support (trend line from the 12/14 and 3/3 lows). ATG

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26331)	5/18/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

IKE Here's a P&F view point...................OJ ...To: james ball (20087 ) From: Ms. X Tuesday, May 18 1999 11:59AM ET Reply # of 20089 THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE DOW JONES KEEPING YOUR PERSPECTIVE At times like this it helps to keep your perspective. One of the most interesting things we have done with our charts, that you will not find anywhere else, is to place the bell curve distribution on the right side of the chart. If you are new to our service you might have seen on the side of the chart the following words: top, med, bot. These mean Top of the bell curve or a level we would consider 100% overbought. Statistically that would be a reading of three standard deviations above trend. Conversely "bot" is the opposite side of the bell curve, or a level we would say is 100% oversold. This is a statistical reading of three standard deviations below trend. "Med" suggests the median or center of the bell curve. This is the point we would call NORMAL for the investment vehicle we were observing. Sixty eight percent of the time anything you are evaluating will remain within one standard deviation above or below trend. The numbers for the Dow Jones are as follows: Top = 11,301, Med = 10,283, and Bot = 9,264. Now let's look at the value of each standard deviation. Subtract the top number 11,301 from the bottom number 9,264 and you get 2,037. Since there are six standard deviations making up each bell curve we will divide 2,037 by 6 to get the value for each standard deviation. That number is 339.5. Therefore, the total bell curve is made up of 6 units of 339.5. Now, remember above we said that any thing you statistically observing will remain within one standard deviation above or below trend. Let's get those numbers for the Dow Jones. The Med number is 10,283 or this is the statistical normal for the Dow Jones. Each standard deviation is 339.5 so let's add 339.5 to 10,283 and we get 10,622 for the upside parameter. Now let's subtract 339.5 form 10,283 we get 9943. So we can expect the Dow Jones to stay between 10,662 and 9943.5 sixty eight percent of the time. Delving into this further we see a couple of scenarios that could happen. First, the Dow Jones can drop about 500 points and it would simply go back to normal. It could drop 800 points and be within that band it normally resides sixty eight percent of the time. Remember, the high last week on the Dow was 11,107 and it would have been 100% overbought at 11,300. The long and short of all this is, the market is doing what is normal, regressing to mean. One note to this bell curve and that is it is made up of ten week's worth of data. As one week drops off and another week comes on, the Top, Med & Bot can change. Therefore, another possible scenario would be that the Dow Jones stays basically where it is and the distribution curve changes bringing the Med up to the 10,800 level. Either way, both scenarios suggest that getting near the top of the ten week trading band, the Dow Jones either needs to do some consolidating here or it needs to pullback to bring to the middle of the distribution and a more "normal" position. Keep track of these levels when you look at your stocks. You can get a picture of this bell curve on the side of the chart. If by some chance, the volatility of the stock is so high it goes off the chart page, click Expand chart on the left side of your chart to find the top orthe bottom. This will help you keep your perspective on the market and your stocks. Ten Week Distribution Curve on the Dow Jones * * * \| * * \| * * \| \| \| * * \| \| \| * * \| \| \| * * \| \| \| \| \| * * \| \| \| \| \| * * \| \| \| \| \| * * \| \| \| \| \| * * \| \| \| \| \| * * * * * \| \| \| \| \| * * * * 9264 9604 9943 10283 10622 10962 11301 100% Oversold Normal 100% Over bought ------ This is an article from Dorsey Wright and Associates, From The Analyst available through the individual subscription. For more articles like this see dorseywright.com Posted with permission from DWA ------ Previous \| Previous \| ------ \| Respond \| View SubjectMarks Bookmark this Subject Discussion \| People \| MetaCrawler Subject Titles Only Full-Text This Subject Only Send questions and feedback to webmistress@techstocks.com Terms of Use

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26331)	5/19/1999 3:36:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

May 18 1999 3:36AM EST <<I have a case here for today and I would like to work on it, for me market will dip and waver until announcement is made, if they leave it unchanged I will not be surprised to see some selling even after initial buying, I would still think 1355 is the top of the move.. The rate were not raised but the change of bias was more damaging TO THE MARKET.. my trades worked great long puts of may bought for 7 were taken out at 12 and on rebound the JUNE'S naked short puts placed to offset in case of rally were squared with a loss of a $, since number of short puts were twice the number of long I had to give up 2$ to gain 5 a net of 3, a trade that would have probably worked alright even in a rallying makret.. the idea of market falling even if rates are remained unchanged and hitting 1318 was off by some points.. for me it is nice to see that our prediction of sell off in absence of increase worked perfectly well... that is what market forecating is all about, htink hard evaluate and translate it into a trade and make some money out of it.. May 18 1999 3:36AM EST <<I have a case here for today and I would like to work on it, for me market will dip and waver until announcement is made, if they leave it unchanged I will not be surprised to see some selling even after initial buying, I would still think 1355 is the top of the move....a break of 2555 will lead us higher to upper band of 1255-60 area but we will see some selling at that resistance.. On down side 1318 and 1310 represent trading rebounds whereas 1364 break represents change of mentality. SOX 402 break is a good move and just symbolizes the sentiment we highlighted Tech's will out perform in a strong economy.. I do expect a major move to 1292 if any stance is changed and outside money puts far away provide the best protection.>> <<I do see a possibility that as a strong feeler to the market AG could decide to go for material move of 1/4% so as to nudge the bonds towards 6.25% level, he may see this as the best opportune time to prick the asset bubble.>> << In my scenario building process I do go sometime wildly off the 'tangent' and right now here I have this opinion my trade would be contrary to conventional pundits. >>

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26331)	5/24/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Looking back at my 18th May post...On size of correction... <<Market new highs are associated with new basing periods,we have this huge bull run over a period of five years with significant corrections on the way up. Thus in my opinion a run from 990 to 1378 is a run which is little suspect on correction front, remember that move to 1310 area, that is kind of move which gives now lease of life to the market, we have not really got some terribly good correction, for the health of this market we need one, and in wake of corporate sector earnings and banking turnaround with Transportation and health the only way to get it is through new fear of core inflation with an added element of Fed tightening, a full quarter basing between 1230 and 1364 may set the market very well for a summer rally, AG in terms of timing would like the summer rally to take off from 1180 or 1230 and not from 1378.. >> On Fed tightening .. I was wrong on the .25 increase but right on the content..why summer rally will come from lows... <<AG can take back .25 of the .75 he gave the markets on back of global meltdown, he would initially send a strong signal but in wake of strong earnings and looking at the various sectors I would think that this is a possible scenario, I have catered for this outside chance by buying some 1230's towards close of the session, just a gamble.. In my scenario building process I do go sometime wildly off the 'tangent' and right now here I have this opinion my trade would be contrary to conventional pundits.>> <<Market new highs are associated with new basing periods,we have this huge bull run over a period of five years with significant corrections on the way up. Thus in my opinion a run from 990 to 1378 is a run which is little suspect on correction front, remember that move to 1310 area, that is kind of move which gives now lease of life to the market, we have not really got some terribly good correction, for the health of this market we need one, and in wake of corporate sector earnings and banking turnaround with Transportation and health the only way to get it is through new fear of core inflation with an added element of Fed tightening, a full quarter basing between 1230 and 1364 may set the market very well for a summer rally, AG in terms of timing would like the summer rally to take off from 1180 or 1230 and not from 1378.. >> On break of 1328 and 1322 and strategies.. I projected the following strategy, long I may write but catching market by neck has become exclusive of Idea, if it goes it cannot without we flashing it out if it goes down it will not be without us.. that is what trading is all about.. <<<<i would sell on highs like 1360 area and buy around 1328 to short again below 1322 for a test of 1292 in near future. For this test 888 on BKX and 2500 on Comp will be decisively taken out, I can see that these worries can take market to as low as 1980 on NDX, so for us as day trader we have to have this cautious stance and nimble approach to trade the volatility we will see as I have said before a pattern like 890-990 band and I would like to trade this band from lows to highs... > Trading bounces forecasted.. << have a case here for today and I would like to work on it, for me market will dip and waver until announcement is made, if they leave it unchanged I will not be surprised to see some selling even after initial buying, I would still think 1355 is the top of the move....a break of 2555 will lead us higher to upper band of 1255-60 area but we will see some selling at that resistance.. On down side 1318 and 1310 represent trading rebounds whereas 1364 break represents change of mentality. SOX 402 break is a good move and just symbolizes the sentiment we highlighted Tech's will out perform in a strong economy..>> I will like to see SOX holding 392 today I will also like that Comp may trade above 2506 so as to close above the 50 days MA and SPM around 1318 in absence of all these breaks I would think we may test the lower limits of 1292 if all indexes and high fliers stay below their 50 days mA. We can than go even to if double close materialises below the levels yesterday to 1260 and 1230 area but let us wait for SPM 1292 break and 550 break DOT and BKX 835. I will than set a target of NDX and Comp below 1980 and 2360 area, I still think that a break above 315 on IIX and 618 on DOT will be first indicator of a move in internets otherwise wait, I have been hot on Techs but waitng for a level when we were at 640 I said above 652 when we were at 618 I called for above 632 entry, this is the only way to save from whipsaw, untimely entry is the worst pain, you see your premiums are lost and you see that you are unable to pick at bottom. Right now I have reduce my entry to 595 the new resistance. I have learnt it hard way never enter position during the session, wait for your resistance and support to be taken out, you will always find that with techniques I use you will be shade better in investing. You will have puts when you need them most and you will enter with minimum of premium loss. I am keeping ATHM CMGI AOL EGRP SCH AMZN on my radar alongwith other highfliers until market show me the direction, above my resistance of IIX and DOT the supports now become a resitance if we have a second close and if we have one today we will possibly see a lot more selling . I will wait and at a certain point I will enter big. Right now enjoying my shorts of BKX and long of bonds, you don't get a better combo than this.. On downgrade of BKX on basis of Y2K problems this is crap but I have learnt one thing it is better some time to listen to crap when environment is changing to pro crap talks.. Right now for next few days until 2506 on Comp and 2115 on NDX is outwe are in volatile times, 1318 is now a resistance on SPM.. Best regards ..