Excerpt. Satellite Communications for the Next Century: Global Markets for GMPCS, LEOs, MEOs, and GEOs 1999-2004
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Release Date: April 1999
Forecast Years: 1999 through 2004
Number of Pages in Report: 141
Number of Figures in Report: 22
Number of Tables in Report: 40
Geographic Coverage: Global
Forecast Segmentation: Access Network Capacity, Access Network Utilization,
Services Revenue by Access Method:
Terrestrial--Wireline, Wireless, and Messaging
Satellite--Legacy MSS and FSS, GMPCS MSS, GMPCS FSS, GMPCS Messaging
Report Description:
Fifty percent of the world's population has no access to a telephone.
By the year 2000, over 60 percent of the world's population will still
not have access to terrestrial wireless service let alone broadband data
communications service. Global Mobile Personal Communications via
Satellite (GMPCS) offers a unique technical solution to the limitations
of existing terrestrial and celestrial networks. GMPCS provides
messaging, voice, and data communications directly to the end user.
The system, operating from a constellation of satellites, reaches
anyone, anywhere, anytime. GMPCS networks will provide both basic
and enhanced services to all regions of the earth, thus offering the
potential for true universal service.
In this study, Insight takes a short and long term view of existing and
planned GMPCS networks, the cost and revenue projections, as well
as economic, technical and regulatory issues which will help or hinder
the future of satellite systems.
Report Excerpt:
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Chapter I: Executive Summary Excerpt
The Opportunity
Our world grows smaller. The Internet is already a worldwide
phenomena and a preeminent medium for commercial and consumer
communications, commerce, and entertainment. International travel,
both for business and pleasure, increases every year. Liberalization and
privatization in developed and undeveloped countries creates open
markets, driving down telecommunications tariffs, duties, and
settlement rates. As these trends conflate they create new
telecommunications customers: some looking only for a basic
telecommunications service by which to enter the global economy,
others having long enjoyed the basics are seeking universal mobility
and continuous access to information.
In this study INSIGHT examines one of the enablers of the new
telecommunications infrastructure. Global mobile personal
communications via satellite, or GMPCS, networks offer a unique
technical solution to the limitations associated with terrestrial networks.
Defined by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) as, ‘any
satellite system (i.e., fixed (FSS) or mobile (MSS), broadband or
narrow-band, global or regional, geostationary or non-geostationary,
existing or planned) providing telecommunications services directly to
the end-users from a constellation of satellites,' GMPCS networks
offer messaging, voice, and data communications accessibility to
anyone, anywhere, at anytime.
The hard reality of telecommunications services today is that the world
currently consists of islands of sophisticated terrestrial
telecommunications network infrastructure, located primarily in North
America, Western Europe, and the Pacific Rim, which serves less than
40 percent of the world's population. If you do not live in the right part
of the word, or if you travel outside of the developed countries, you
are essentially non-participants in the information age.
Intense unmet demand exists on the part of these prospective users for
messaging, narrowband, and wideband telecommunications services.
According to the ITU, of the 1.5 billion worldwide households, 500
million have telephone service, 50 million are waiting for service, and
250 million more could afford telephone service. The waiting period for
some of those 50 million households currently in queue will exceed 1.5
years; and service establishment will cost up to $3,000. Over three and
one half billion people have no home phone service; at least 50 percent
of the world's population does not even have access to a telephone!
By the year 2000, well over 60 percent of the world's population will
still not have access to terrestrial wireless service, let alone broadband
data communications service.
The technical, regulatory, and economic environment conducive to
fostering a healthy GMPCS industry seems to be in place. Within this
operating environment, over 50 GMPCS service providers plan to join
the handful of pioneers who have already launched GMPCS satellites,
and deploy at least 80 additional constellations, consisting of over
2000 telecommunications satellites, during the next ten years. In order
to achieve this extremely ambitious objective, an estimated $140 billion
to $175 billion in investment capital will have to be raised, in addition
to the $15 billion to $26 billion that has already been invested in
GMPCS ventures.
In the event that even a small majority of the planned GMPCS
networks ultimately prove to be successful, their combined impact will
extend far beyond the telecommunications industry, creating new
technologies, new services, new customers, new vendors, new
organizational structures, new regulatory apparatus, and a new
definition of telecommunications service provider.
INSIGHT believes the long term impact on the worldwide economy
resulting from GMPCS networks will be:
- The emergence of the first truly trans-border business organizations,
in terms of actual ownership and control. The ownership base and
management responsibilities associated with many GMPCS ventures
are spread among various countries, with no single investing entity
holding a majority interest. Diversified ownership and control on a
worldwide basis will present interesting challenges to GMPCS
managers, but it will prove to be a major facilitator of free trade and
open market access among countries of all sizes and cultures.
- A reassessment and possible overhaul of the existing
telecommunications regulatory apparatus. Country-by-country
regulation of telecommunications services as exists today will be
difficult, if not impossible, in an environment of trans-border business
organizations. The concept of national regulation will have to be
re-evaluated, although this would be an extremely difficult venture to
carry out.
- The flow of increasingly large volumes of investment capital into
satellite communications and supporting industries. Investors
worldwide have allocated between $15 billion and $26 billion to
GMPCS ventures through the end of 1998. The top 20 public
GMPCS related ventures already have a combined market
capitalization of $100 plus billion. Funds flowing into the satellite
industry are not expected to dry up any time soon, nor is the potential
associated with the market.
Which is not to say that there are not obstacles to overcome. Potential
technical impediments to GMPCS' success include satellite signal
propagation delay, which is especially problematic with GEO satellites;
the line of sight visibility requirement for most satellite communications;
and signal interference from terrestrial and atmospheric obstacles, as
well as from other radio-based services sharing common operating
frequencies. Other technical impediments relate to satellite
communications network reliability, security, and interoperability.
Regulatory concerns relate to the fact that many undeveloped countries
have yet to adopt, and do not appear ready to adopt, open market
policies in the near future. The possibility also exists that the current
trend toward liberalization in countries that are in the process of
implementing such policies may be reversed, and that a return to
protectionism would undermine worldwide GMPCS acceptance.
Finally, local telecommunications jurisdictions may restrict competition
by showing favoritism to select GMPCS providers, or local service
providers may establish excessive price mark-ups at the retail level,
thus restricting take up on GMPCS services.
The primary prospective economic impediment to GMPCS industry
success is a reversal in the favorable treatment currently afforded to
GMPCS ventures by the capital markets.
The Challenge
Winners over the long term will be carriers that can assimilate large
groups of people from different companies and from diverse corporate
and international cultures into a cohesive worldwide federation. [Note: How about VOD, ATI, France Telecom, (Singapore Telecom?) and G*?] The
federation will ultimately evolve into a single mega-carrier. In order to
meet this challenge, management must untangle problems in:
- Network technologies: by providing seamless network integration;
- Back office support systems: by offering one bill and one customer
service organization;
- Products and services: by delivering consistent offerings, pricing, and
service quality; and
- Cultures: by functioning as a single entity from the customer's
perspective on a worldwide basis.
The challenge for telecommunications industry decision makers is to
identify, select, and integrate the best of breed terrestrial and celestial
organizations into a world class company, capable of addressing the
telecommunications services requirements of customers ranging from
individuals in undeveloped regions to major multinational corporations.
Table of Contents:
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Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 The Opportunity
1.2 The Market
1.3 The Challenge
Chapter II
INTRODUCTION
2.1 Industry Overview
2.1.1 The Gap in Information Distribution
2.2 Potential GMPCS Impact on the Worldwide Economy
2.3 Report Objective and Scope
2.4 Satellite Communications Network Classifications
2.4.1 GMPCS Messaging Systems (Little LEOs)
2.4.2 Mobile Satellite Systems (MSS)
2.4.2.1 Non-GEO MSS (Big LEOs)
2.4.2.2 GEO MSS
2.4.3 Fixed Satellite Systems
2.4.3.1 Non-GEO FSS (Broadband LEOs)
2.4.3.2 GEO FSS
2.5 GMPCS Satellite Networks
Chapter III
SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS HISTORY
3.1 Satellite Communications Industry Development
3.1.1 ISO Communications Satellite Networks, 1964-1980
3.1.2 First Generation Satellite Networks (1980-1990)
3.1.3 Second Generation Satellite Networks, 1990-present
3.1.4 Unrestrained GMPCS Industry Growth, 1999 to 2004
3.1.5 Intense Competition, (2001 to 2007)
3.1.6 Major Consolidation, (2003 to 2009)
3.2 GMPCS Regulatory Environment
3.2.1 International Regulatory Structure
3.2.2 National Regulatory Structure
3.2.3 GMPCS Authorization Process
3.2.4 Key GMPCS Regulatory Issues
Chapter IV
TECHNOLOGY and Design
4.1 System Elements
4.1.1 Space Segment
4.1.2 Ground Segment
4.1.3 User Terminals
4.1.4 Satellite System Architecture
4.1.4.1 ISLs
4.1.5 Spotbeams
4.1.6 Satellite System Coverage
4.1.7 Satellite Orbit
4.1.8 Operating Frequencies
4.1.8.1 Access Sharing Scheme
Chapter V
SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS VENDOR PROFILES
5.1 Overview
5.2 Astrolink
5.3 Constellation Communications
5.4 Ellipso
5.5 Globalstar
5.6 ICO Global
5.7 Intelsat
5.8 Iridium
5.9 KaStar
5.10 ORBCOMM
5.11 PanAmSat
5.12 Skybridge LP
5.13 Teledesic
Chapter VI
GMPCS BUSINESS MODEL
6.1 Demand for GMPCS Services
6.1.1 GMPCS Messaging Services
6.1.1.2 Next Generation Messaging Applications
6.1.2 MSS GMPCS Segments
6.1.3 FSS GMPCS Segments
6.2 Supply of GMPCS Services
6.2.1 GMPCS Messaging
6.3 GMPCS Organization Structure
6.3.1 GMPCS Financial Considerations
6.3.1.1 Initial GMPCS System Investment
6.3.1.2 GMPCS Per Minute Costs
6.3.1.3 GMPCS Network Profitability
6.4 GMPCS Drivers and Enablers
6.4.1 GMPCS Enablers
6.4.1.1 Technical Enablers
6.4.1.2 Regulatory Enablers
6.4.1.3 Economic Enablers
6.5 Impediments to GMPCS Success
6.5.1 Regulatory Impediments
6.5.2 Economic Roadblocks
6.5.3 Business Environment Impediments
Chapter VII
MARKET ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
7.1 Overview
7.2 Access Network Capacity
7.2.1 Network Capacity Metrics and Definitions
7.2.2 Access Network Capacity Observations and Analysis
7.3 Access Network Utilization
7.3.1 Network Utilization Metrics and Definitions
7.3.2 Access Network Utilization Projections
7.3.3 Access Network Utilization Observations and Analysis
7.4 Network Revenue Metrics and Definitions
7.4.1 Revenue Observations and Analysis
Chapter VIII
GMPCS SUCCESS STRATEGIES
8.1 General Strategic Imperatives
8.1.1 Maximizing User Demand
8.2 GMPCS Vendor Strategies
8.3 Incumbent Vendor Strategies
Appendix A
SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY MILESTONES
Significant Events
Appendix B
GLOSSARY
List of Terms
TABLE OF FIGURES
1-1 GMPCS Revenue Projections, 1999-2004 ($Billions)
II-1 Total Worldwide Households With or Without Telephone Service
IV-1 Satellite Communications System
IV-2 Communications Satellite Architecture
IV-3 Satellite Coverage Area and Service Area
IV-4 Satellite Ground Station
IV-5 Bent Pipe Architecture
IV-6 Intersatellite Links
IV-7 Satellite Spotbeam Honeycomb
IV-8 Satellite Spotbeams
IV-9 Satellite Footprint
IV-10 Satellite Orbit Inclination
IV-11 Satellite Orbit Eccentricity
VI-1 MSS GMPCS Per Minute Costs by Million Minutes Per Year
VII-1 Access Network Capacity of Wireline, Wireless and
Messaging)
VII-2 Access Network Capacity for GMPCS and Legacy Systems
VII-3 GMPCS and Other Satellite Revenue Projections, 1999-2004
VII-4 Total Terrestrial and Satellite Revenue, 1999-2004
VII-5 Revenues for GMPCS by Type, 1999-2004 ($Billions)
VII-6 Long Term Usage Service Trends, 1999-2020 (Billions of
Minutes)
VII-7 Service Revenues, 1999 and 2020
VII-8 GMPCS Usage versus Revenue, 1999-2020
TABLE OF TABLES
I-1 GMPCS Investment ($Billions)
I-2 GMPCS Industry Profile for the Year 2004
II-1 Operational and Planned GMPCS Satellite Network
II-2 Summary of Existing and Planned GMPCS Satellites
III-1 Satellite Deployment Status and Plans
III-2 GMPCS Industry Profile for the Year 2004
IV-1 Communications Satellite Orbital Comparison
V-1 Astrolink
V-2 Constellation Communications
V-3 Ellipso
V-4 Globalstar LP
V-5 ICO Global Communications
V-6 Intelsat
V-7 Iridium LLC
V-8 KaStar
V-9 ORBCOMM
V-10 PanAmSat
V-11 Skybridge LP
V-12 Teledesic
VI-1 Mobile Application for Global Paging Segment
VI-2 Data Communications Application for Remote Data Acquisition
VI-3 Mobile Application for Remote Asset Trackin
VI-4 Data Communications Applications for Short Messaging
Segment
VI-5 Mobile Telephony Application for Global Traveler Segment
VI-6 Fixed Telephony Application for Party Line Segment
VI-7 Mobile Telephony Application for Disaster, Emergency,
Exploration
VI-8 Mobile Telephony Application for Remote Rural Subscribers
VI-9 Fixed Telephony Application for Rural Pay Phones
VI-10 Retail Application for Interactive Broadband Segment
VI-11 Wholesale Application for Broadcast/Multicast Broadband
Segment
VI-12 GMPCS Investment ($Billions)
VI-13 MSS GMPCS Per Minute Costs, by Million Minutes Per Year
VII-1 Acess Network Capacity of Wireline and Wireless Terminals
VII-2 Instantaneous Information Carrying Capacity, 1999-2004
(Gbit/s)
VII-3 Access Network Utilization Projections for Wireline and
Wireless
VII-4 Access Network Utilization, 1999-2004 (Billions of Minutes)
VII-5 Access Network Data Transmitted, 1999-2004 (Tbit/s)
VII-6 Public Telecommunications Services Revenues, 1999-2004
($Billions)
VII-7 Projected Evolution of GMPCS, 1999-2020
VII-8 Long-Term GMPCS Industry Growth of Usage, Revenue
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