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To: Calvin who wrote (126467)5/18/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: John Koligman  Respond to of 176387
 
Calvin,

Everyone is on my radar screen. Your comment that they called CPQ is correct. However, you conveniently forgot to mention that those same folks have been too bullish in their estimates for Dell over the past two quarters...

Regards,
John



To: Calvin who wrote (126467)5/19/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: rudedog  Respond to of 176387
 
Calvin -
Unfortunately for Jim Kelley's record as a psychic, he got both the earnings projections and the reasons for CPQ performance wrong both in 4Q98 and in 1Q99. He has some interesting observations but his track record on predicting CPQ recently has been pretty bad. I can refer you to Jim's posts on the CPQ thread if you like.

This is not to bash Jim - my own predictions about CPQ were about as bad. But he did not report "those same problems"...



To: Calvin who wrote (126467)5/24/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: jim kelley  Respond to of 176387
 
Calvin,

Dog and John are CPQ loyalists.

We learned an interesting fact this quarter from the DELL CC.
Namely, that DELL does not give IDC or Dataquest their unit sales figures because the other companies do not give them either.
So the Dataquest and IDC unit sales numbers are actually SWAGs
by those market research firms. The estimates this quarter were thrown off by the theory that January was a weak unit sales month for
DELL and that April was a stronger months than January. However, we had no proof of that.

I still do not know why these unit numbers are inconsistent with Gabriel's hypothesis.. It could be that DELL's weak month was November or December instead of January. Also, it looks like DELL's sales growth in Europe slipped by about 2% which amounts to over 100 M in revenue and perhaps 50K units.

Regards,

Jim Kelley