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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (12727)	5/18/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: Michael G. Potter	Respond to of 16960

I wish that nvidia had more following in the stock chat rooms. They released earnings today (looked pretty good at first glance, no time tonight to look into them more), but I haven't been able to find any conference call summaries. Michael

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (12727)	5/19/1999 12:53:00 AM
From: Obewon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

I must say that I happen to agree with your assessment that 3dfx is holding off on releasing the Voodoo3 3500TV. The performance difference between the V3 3000 and TNT2 Ultra are neglible (except for the various features even the V3 3500 won't have). The V3 3500 may show some difference above the TNT2U bur it will probably be neglible as well. I see several interesting issues with the delay: 1) They sold about 95% of the boards they could make in April directly to the retail channel. Where is the volume going to come from to supply tier 1 OEM's starting in June? Lack of spare capacity (or uncertainty about initial demand vs the TNT2U causing them to delay in staring up another shift) could easily be the cause. 2) The Voodoo3 3500 has only two competitors (V3 3K and a TNT2U), one of which is already a 3dfx board. Why immediately launch another board which will just compete against your own existing product. Intel proved that if Celerons became too good, too fast, it cut into sales of the higher margined Pentium 2. 3) Pushing back release of the Voodoo3 3500TV raises the possibility that 3dfx can further enhance the board. For example, 3dfx MAY decide that the Voodoo3 3500TV would provide an even better value if they incorporated AGP4X into the card. This is especially tempting since the rumors about 3dfx releasing a fourth version of the Voodoo3 with AGP4X seemed to have subsided. July is just a month or two before Intel will roll out chipsets supporting AGP4x. Hmmm?? 4) I predict that 3dfx will not release it nextgen chip until late October at the earliest but will get it out before mid-November (they need the boards in the stores by Thanksgiving weekend). Release of the chip will coincide with the release of several games that will take advantage of the geometry acceleration and mega-fillrate the card will have. Until these games are ready (or until the gamer market is sufficiently hyped about these "soon-to-be-released" games) there will not be the overwhelming need to upgrade for I expect that the card will be somewhat expensive. Obewon