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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (5233)	5/19/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: " We'll have to see if this was a one time fluke but the direction of inflation seems likely to have changed." I do not know if it is a one time fluke or not but I do not think the direction on inflation has changed. There is no wage push inflation on the horizon with the strong productivity growth. And I am a pretty pragmatic guy and when all the CEOs at the Williamsburg conference tell us that they have no pricing power, I will take their word over any one time statistical blip at this point. And don't forget we have the powerful forces of the internet and global pricing as Brinker has mentioned many times over. THE TALKING HEADS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THIS FUNDAMENTAL AND PERMANENT SHIFT IN THE ECONOMY AND ITS DISINFLATIONARY FORCE. But I can't control the markets and if the perception of inflation grows, the reality of the situation will not make a difference. I am pleased the Fed. went to a tightening bias. Better to act earlier than later for the equity markets. And we might see some stabilization in the long bond and maybe a little rally. The bond folks like someone who is just as paranoid as they are and Greenspan is the man. Finally, I would rather take a .25 point here and there than a .50 move every month which would kill the market. Re: "While inflation is no longer declining if not robustly growing, in the rest of the world we seem to be losing the fear by the Fed of tanking emerging markets with a tighter policy." I think it is still there but certainly not as pronounced. I am pleased that the emerging markets did not tank as a result. Nice well thought out post.

To: marc ultra who wrote (5233)	5/19/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

sentiment numbers bulls 60.9% bears 28.7% bulls/(bulls+bears)=67.97 up from 64.73 last week

To: marc ultra who wrote (5233)	5/24/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

per CNBC former Fed member Laurence Lindsey said he sees three rate hikes starting with the June meeting. I can't find an article on it anywhere Marc

To: marc ultra who wrote (5233)	5/24/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I hope Bob's visibility through May isn't getting cloudy. As I've stated previously I'm very concerned of bad things starting in May with the highs of the year possibly already seen. I felt a little more sanguine after Bob sounded confident at least through May but now I'm beginning to wonder. I sold some European fund today to raise more cash trying to get cute on the fact Europe couldn't respond to the US this morning since I think there was a holiday in most markets. Something tells me I'm going to pay a lot of taxes this year Marc