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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yogizuna who wrote (14335)	5/19/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Yogi, I am happy with my call so far and even happier sitting on profits that though they were halved thanks to the Brits BOE sale announcement, would now be long gone and underwater if I had not sold. My supposition of a manipulated market holds so far and I have adjusted all TA on PM stocks to a strong consideration of the political element. Unfortunately, this leaves me in the position of not really having TA anymore but more tape reading and intuition. Which leaves me with not much to share here for MDA folks. I will say that the POG is at or below Aug 98 lows (I just got in, didn't have time to check for certain) and the XAU has still not hit the Aug 98 lows yet, so that supposition of mine of a XAU/POG differential is holding. Much more of this deterioration and the XAU cannot hold, those buying previous support levels may have been baited. In which case a XAU crash is possible. If XAU does crash this may be the long awaited V-bottom, but this is not a certainty either. Political and economic considerations would have to "line up" to ensure a recovery in POG. Right now I think they are getting it where they want it. With forward sales etc. it is ever in the interest of those that lease to have gold on a downtrend. As a caveat to all the above, gold and gold equities sentiment is at a new low to match the POG. I have seen capitulation from long term gold bulls as never before during this long bear market in gold. A "truly free gold market" will not occur until there is a currency or banking crisis, there are too many dollars at stake against gold. This is not to say that gold will never rise again, it will, but how far depends on how strong the hold of its handlers and what is cost effective for them. Currently, I await a bottom. (I do hold and TRY not to trade, a small amount of gold stocks for long term) Disclaimer, All of the above is the mere opinion of a recently successful but otherwise not particularly adroit, and definitely small time, sometimes investor in gold equities. AND BWTHDIK. best of luck, Roebear