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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wl9839 who wrote (15397)	5/19/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: wl9839	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

Market Commentary Latin American Stocks: Argentina, Brazil Fall on Budget Gaps New York, May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Latin American stocks fell, led by Argentina, after the International Monetary Fund warned it would cut off emergency lines of credit if the government fails to narrow is budget deficit. The Merval index fell 3.3 percent to 533.68. Banco Bansud SA led the decline, falling 6.2 percent to 2.86 pesos as Argentina's Par bond fell 1.6 percent to 65.41, reducing the value of the bank's investment portfolio. The IMF said it would cut access to a $2.8 billion standby loan if Argentina's deficit widens further. The forecast for Argentina's deficit this year has already risen to $5.1 billion from $2.95 billion, and may widen further as governors protest a plan to pare $360 million from money earmarked for the provinces. In Brazil, the Bovespa index of most-traded shares fell 1.1 percent to 12,137.27 after President Fernando Henrique Cardoso gave up on a plan to impose a minimum retirement age for government employees. The decision could set back efforts to pare Brazil's $72 billion budget deficit. ''These kinds of troubles increase the perception that the countries of this region are not safe for foreign investment,'' said Carlos Hokama, who manages $40 million in equities at Banco Credibanco SA. In Mexico, the bolsa index fell 1.4 percent to 5,774.45 after the government reported a slump in consumer demand slowed the economy to lowest level of growth in three years in the first quarter. Chile's Ipsa index fell 0.3 percent to 120.40, and stocks also fell in Venezuela and Peru. Emerging market debt fell 1.5 percent on an index compiled by J.P. Morgan & Co. ICA Empresas ICA SA, Mexico's largest builder, rose 0.6 percent to 11.02 pesos after the benchmark lending rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in almost 11 months at a government debt auction. Lower rates are expected to spur demand for construction. ''Interest rates came down when they are expected to rise,'' said Hugo Rubio, a trader at Lazard, Freres & Co. ''It's a vote of confidence in Mexico's economy.'' Centrais Eletricas de Santa Catarina SA, an electric utility, fell 2.7 percent to 0.72 reais. Receipts in Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA, the most heavily weighted share on the Bovespa index, fell 1.9 percent to 162.8 reais. The receipts, which represent the companies spawned by the breakup of Brazil's telephone monopoly last year, will be removed from the index on Sept. 1. Industrias Klabin Papel e Celulose SA, a maker of wood pulp and paper, rose4.8 percent to 0.65 reais, adding to yesterday's 17 percent surge. Klabin's operating in come rose 200 percent in the first quarter from last year. Telepar Celular SA, a wireless phone company in Parana state, fell 1.9 percent to 100 reais. Telecom Italia SpA, Italy's largest phone company, recently paid $246 million to boost its stake in the holding company that controls Telepar Celular, Tele Celular Sul Participacoes SA, and Tele Nordeste Celular Participacoes SA. Tele Celular Sul shares fell 4.9 percent to 3.85, and Tele Nordeste shares fell 3.5 percent to 2.77 reais. Tele Sudeste Celular Tele Sudeste Celular Participacoes SA fell 8.3 percent to 5.5 reais after Spain's Telefonica SA said it would seek to buy all outstanding shares of two wireless companies that Sudeste Celular controls, Telerj Celular SA and Telest Celular SA. Pepsi-Gemex SA, a soft drink bottler, rose 1 percent to 16.1 pesos. Gemex has doubled its market share over the past two years in its home city of Monterrey, where more soft drinks are consumed per capita than in any other city in the world. Banco Edwards SA, a Chilean bank, rose 1.2 percent to 43 pesos on optimism the central bank will cut rates to spur the economy out of its first recession in 15 years. CA Electricidad de Caracas, Venezuela's only traded utility, fell 3.3 percent to 81.5 bolivars as ministers resign from the cabinet of President Hugo Chavez, to run for spots in the country's constitutional assembly. ''We don't know who Chavez is going to govern with,'' said Antonio Dalbano, a trader with the Activalores brokerage in Caracas. ''Investors are going to be extremely cautious.'' ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ©

To: wl9839 who wrote (15397)	5/19/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Warren, I edited my last post...looks like after you saw it. I suspect the minimum age retraction is causing the downdraft...could spread doubt on the entire set of fiscal reforms. As I said, I now question the status of the CPMF tax. I'd bet this is in trouble also. I for the most part stay away from extremely short term options...been burned on these more often than not. Would rather pay the premium and go out a month. I'll add to my positions at the 88-90 level if we hit it. sf