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Non-Tech : Berkshire Hathaway Class B -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fredman who wrote (799)	5/19/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1652

Berkshire is the same price today as it was in March of 1998. You are losing money by investing in this behemoth run by two brilliant men who appear to have lost it. Berkshire's hey day was in the 70s when a calm, mathematically inclined 'margin of safety" man could find amazing bargains by looking at the fundamentals and ignoring the horrible news about the highest interest rates since the civil war and the oil embargo, etc. But now the news is that of a "new era" of long term growth with minimal inflation, the exact opposite of the inflationary recession of the 70s. There is few if any undervalued stocks with brand names out there, with the possible exception, in my view, of IBM and AT&T. BUt here the typical Buffett answer would be that "we dont understand technology" and "we don't like change because it is inimical to profits." So you end up with a Dunkin' Donuts. You have to be willing to invest in growht stocks in communications and the digital revolution in order to make any real money today. Some will fizzle as they mature, my wonderful Dell is now one such example. It may trade sideways for six months or more and it is possible that its glory days are forever over as the commoditization of the computer now gets under way in dead earnest buT i had two years of 200% growth and I would've gotten it all if I had sold last February. But I will take 175% a year. I am also almost convinced that the long term capital gain may be a thing of the past. I havent been able to hold a stock that long with one exception, BRKB from May 1996 to last may. I still tout RMBS (to great hoots from BUffettologists) I think it will be a toll bridge. RMBS has moved up 20 from 60 to 80 in the last 30 days. I like IBM. Look at its amazing pull out section of ads in yesertdayh's Wall St. Journal. This is a company that is DEFINING what the new computer company should be: the complete e-business solution from soup to nuts. THis could even marginalize Dell and reduce it to a build to order internet supplier of commodity like items in a range of low end contraptions. Buffett avoids these overnight or nearly overnight changes. See today's NY TImes article and yesterday's WSJ article about server factoires and the marginalization of the PC. I seek fine companies like BUffett but I do not follow orthodox value inesting dogma. I am getting too old to settle for less than a 50% return a year. I found ICOS by the way but sold too soon. jhg