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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14365)	5/19/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Howdy Robert: Would you expect a sudden drop, as in Oct '87, rather than a more drawn out correction as we saw Aug-Oct 98? If you look at the daily charts for both time periods using the Dow 30 Industrials you would note, that both drops took about six weeks from top to bottom. Oh, by the way....I like to think I have an open mind as well...<g> Regards, LG

To: Robert Rose who wrote (14365)	5/19/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert, I don't think I am bearish at all, at least not yet,,, cautious? YES. The point that I was attempting to make was that the bullish ride imo is not over yet. Like I said I do believe that we will see another big run to the upside. But I am a realist in that I believe the scale in terms of excess is being tilted, as it always is both on the long and short side of any major move. These excesses will be cleaned up as they normally are, with a good part of these gains retraced during our next major move down. When might that be?? I wish I knew. My goal has always been to attempt to stay in the markets as long as possible. People always say how difficult it is to call the top in the avgs. A phrase that I firmly agree with. However, I am a firm believer that every trend starts someplace, it has to. And that any major downdraft in prices will most likely carry most stocks down with it. Therefore, there will be clues. And of course I am slighly biased towards the use of the charts in reading those market signals. So let me say that I still believe we have one more leg left, which of course is always subject to change. Right now we are at a pretty critical point here in that I believe this next leg up could start very shortly (weeks). Because of that, currently there is pressure on the avgs. to break in some direction. That is why I am cautious here. Where this next leg stops is always the million dollar question. I do believe that when the correction begins it will indeed be fast and brutal. IMO, volatility is here to stay, and if anything should greatly increase the higher the avgs. go. Sorry if I went on a tangent. But putting my thoughts on paper has never been my strong suit <gg>. Regards, SO