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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BOB WALKER who wrote (17638)	5/19/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: Tom Tallant	Respond to of 41369

Bob, That's what Steve Case said this morning in an interview. IMHO he is right. VERY right not to just jump into any cable deal that comes along to jack up sentiment short-term. AOL has a clear strategy to attract and retain as many eyeballs as they can through any medium. Remember...it isn't how you get there but rather that you do. Unfortunately...current sentiment is that cable is the be all to beat all. It is the hoola hoop of the month. As a consequence, AOL's share price is reflecting that sentiment...however ATHM is trading down today so go figure. Tom Tom

To: BOB WALKER who wrote (17638)	5/19/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Respond to of 41369

In a word SPEED.People feel the need for speed. Ed Forrest

To: BOB WALKER who wrote (17638)	5/19/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

> may access TCP/IP (very fast).< Are you sure you mean that.Perhaps T1 is what you thinking of.Isn't TCP/IP a configuration(protocol) for dial-up networking for use w/ a modem?Perhaps a technical person could clear that up for me. Ed Forrest

To: BOB WALKER who wrote (17638)	5/19/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: tang	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

Bob, what you said is very true for people who 'knows' internet, what you said is very true because it is the truth. But the investment market lives on Analysts' comments or concerns, they are the ones who put all perception into the market to make the market. The difference is reality vs perception and investors (except us or do we?) live on perception and that is why the AOL's price is on the side (or slide) trend. We make money or lose money on perception short term but we definitely make money on the long term because perception won't last long! Within 1 year if AMZN still cannot make money, the perception will die out. Within 1 year if CABLE audience grows significantly, the perception may become reality, and your guess on this one is as good as mine but I won't take a cable modem until the price is $20/month or less, mark my word.

To: BOB WALKER who wrote (17638)	5/19/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: George Martin	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

Hi, Bob - Here's another thought on the AOL / cable / broadband access issue that you presented. IMO, the "threat" with the T (TCOMA + UMG) - ATHM - XCIT alliance (I prefer the term "T food chain" and I left out the 5 billion $ MSFT "investment" ! ) is that there will be an attempt to "BUNDLE" ACCESS WITH CONTENT/PORTAL SITE. Then, theoretically, the cable co. could offer you cable modem access -- blended in with preferential links and promotion for say, Excite, or maybe sometimes MSN promo -- at x dollars. Unless AOL strikes some kind of wholesale access rights from the "T food chain," AOL would then be left solely as a premium add-on with relatively more expensive prices and lose ISP subscriber income and possibly portal site eyeballs and income. Convenience and price point packaging don't count for everything but certainly they can make incremental differences for traffic volume and use. Obviously, erosion of AOL's subscriber base #'s and income would not be good for AOL growth story and would probably lead to contraction of current high PE multiple supporting the stock price. (Look at DELL -- the market is brutal and unforgiving at any hint of DECLINING growth rates in any top line tech / internet growth stocks, even if the actual rate is exceptional in absolute terms.) AOL deals with RBOC's seem designed to mutually benefit: AOL looking for opportunity for branded access and RBOC's happy to tap into 18 million AOL subscriber base. With this potential audience / market waiting, I'm thinking the RBOC's will be "motivated" to commit to accelerated roll out -- plus the RBOC's have the added "incentive" of cable threat in telephony market. Other comments / opinions appreciated -- George Martin