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Technology Stocks : Corel Corp. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big K who wrote (6654)	5/19/1999 5:53:00 PM
From: Scott Volmar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9798

Big K, Couldn't agree with you more on "market penetration." However, vision and cash are required to create enthusiasm for the new releases and lure customers away from Microsoft, Adobe and others. In the past, Corel has been short on both. As to cash, I expect that there is plenty of excess among the "Ottawacko's" at Corel. (Expression from the article posted by the assiduous "Reader.") I don't believe cuts occurred in Ottawa at the time of the Orem separation. Healthy lay-offs now would provide cash that could be used to gain market penetration, which would then lead to growth . . . and profits . . . and price appreciation for shareholders. As to vision, does Corel have the leadership necessary to engineer effective marketing campaigns to motivate customers to buy? Corel has truly fine products, but in the era of increased competition, potential customers must have a reason to "buy Corel." Management has relied too heavily on low prices to move product. If people perceive that Corel's products are more desirable, they will want the "best." Finally, with past performance as a guide, Corel is more likely to post a two or three million-dollar loss as opposed to a profit. A huge demand for the new releases "out-of-the-gate" would be required to produce $85 M in revenue for Q2. If this phenomenon does occur, and can be repeated in Q3 and Q4, demand for shares of COS/COSFF could take the price to "$20.00 in 2000." Up, Up and Away! Scott

To: Big K who wrote (6654)	5/19/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Leo Mitkievicz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9798

Hello big K, As best we know they still count 'em sold when they ship to the distributor, not on the end user sale. To the company's credit they have avoided past excesses in more recent quarters. Since O'Reilly came onboard the numbers have been credible. (Scott may mildly disagree, but in general they've kept channel inventory pretty much in line with demand.) Of course, this is the first time we've seen major new releases since the current revenue recognition policies went into effect, so judgements may be flawed. We will have to wait and see whether or not reporting discipline will continue. The potential for monkey business is still present. Regards, Leo

To: Big K who wrote (6654)	5/20/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: James P Shaw	Respond to of 9798

Sales of $80M (I assume US$), would be very substantial. Without looking at the record, I don't know if they ever got close to $80M (without channel stuffing of course). If they actually record $50M or more they will be profitable, Mr O'Reilly and staff have done some appreciative cutbacks on expenses (kind of basic accounting principles). I agree that there will probably be no more layoffs at Corel, for the short term at least. Obviously if they lose money this quarter they will have to consider this. Dr Cowpland has been very reluctant to layoff engineers. He knows you can't sell a product if you don't have anyone working on it. If anything sales and general admin staff would be trimmed. As to one-time costs, Corel seems to always have an Ace up their sleeve on this topic. What a magician act they have demonstrated in the past. As to the number of 'ATTEMPTED' downloads in excess of 3 million. I agree that when its free anyone will download a copy for home, not for the workplace. That's where Linux is at the present moment (it remains to be seen if it takes off corporately). They did say the same thing about PCs and Windows, look where they are now (their own little marketplace). It has the potential for future revenue down the road. They are taking a page out of Netscape's book. Ciao! Jim Shaw