To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (2533 ) 5/20/1999 2:32:00 PM From: Bulldozer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4710
It is no wonder they call themselves 'fools'. That could have been written by a 5 year old. Its incredible the crap these guys feed to all these novice investors. Okay, that spewing aside, I am becoming more confident in VTSS' future by the day (TD will hate me saying that since we don't have full boat of this thing yet) - oh well. SONET network elements and the SPE will be around for a LONG time. No other transport platform can match its Overhead, admin, maintenance and policing (OAMP) - nothing comes close. Telcos have hundreds of billions of dollars of this stuff in their networks - you think thats going away overnight? A couple other major factors - DWDM uses a LOT of the Sonet optoelectronic infrastructure. It uses the same chips for O-E-O conversions that Sonet elements use - transimpedance amplifiers (assists the photodiode on the receivers in detecting the optical signal and converting to an electrical signal), CRUs (clock recovery assists in signal synchronization) and serial/deserial (take the packets and convert to serial bits as it flows through the network element and visa versa on the way out). In fact approx. 75% of VTSS's optoelectronic chips are also used for straight SONET chips (which of course is optoelectronic as well). When they sell to a LU, they may not know where the chips are going - SONET or DWDM. Thus, along with Fibre Channel and GE, DWDM is a driver of biz, not a threat! Second - don't forget the silicon cycle. ASSPs will prob exceed 50% of industry sales by next year - and VTSS is targeting even further gains by offering solutions for processing and overhead in addition to the phy layer. Although the stock's sluggishness (backlog, LU concentration etc.) is frustrating, I have no doubt they are going have a great year and with Comm ICs being such a hot investment mkt, it won't be long until people start flooding back into VTSS. Bulldozer