Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: taxman who wrote (22932)	5/19/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

It looks like some dramatic changes are sweeping through the box-maker industries - and I suspect that there may be consequences to all ISP companies, including MSFT (through MSN). Dell is thinking of giving away PCs in return for subscribing to a Dell-branded ISP. news.com OK, let us think about this for a moment. First, is it going to fly? That depends at least partially on what internet access will cost in the future. If at some point access will be free, or virtually free (ATHM's head guy suggested that ISP is headed toward "free", and we already know about England's biggest ISP being free, and free ISPs proliferating here) - then this proposal is not going to work. If, on the other hand this thing will fly, then this is going to have a pretty dramatic effect on ISP companies. I doubt Dell is going to want to actually run an ISP service, but rather will "brand" it - ie, sign some overall business deal with f.ex. AOL for a cut of the money. Whoever signs this deal with Dell could be a HUGE winner. Because as you can well imagine, people who need ISP services and a computer anyway, will probably spring for this deal big-time - and so that would mean lower margins for the ISP company (must share $ with Dell), but it could gain tremendous market share. That could be devastating competition to other ISPs - of course Gateway et al would join in with other ISPs and bring back the competition. But that would mean simply lower margins for ALL ISPs, particularly that those that do not sign with a big boxmaker have room to cut their prices (which the signees don't as their margins are thinner). This means tremendous pressure on margins on all ISPs, unless one dominant ISP captures most of the business (MSN, are you listening?). Still, even if Dell or other box-makers PAY you to take a PC, this is good news for MSFT - no need to cut margins, and they all need software, a lot of it MSFT product. Oh, it's sweet to own MSFT :) Morgan

To: taxman who wrote (22932)	5/19/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

taxman, Without a stock rise, the PE of this company keeps going down after each earnings release. The big revenue from its big releases Office and Windows2000 is in future quarters (although a lot of Office revenue gets recognized this quarter, more is to be recognized in the following quarter). For a company like this, the valuation is just too low. Just don't think that with a saturated PC market, MSFT would be finished. There are no many different software applications that are being dreamed up by MSFT (and others). MSFT's advantage is that it has a huge R and D budget and an easy entry to the market (this is the key). Other companies have difficulties in bringing products to market (more so than MSFT) I am looking for 100+ by July earnings--feel confident about it.