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Non-Tech : Radica Games (RADA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DYW who wrote (6819)5/19/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: wolfdog2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7111
 
DYW, I suspect that with hindsight you can pick such stocks. The problem is picking them in advance. And if you bet everything on one stock, as Chaz seems to be suggesting, then what happens if your hot grower comes a cropper and falls by 50% because, say, they miss their earning's estimate? My argument would be the same, of course, even if you tried to pick a flock of 50% growers.

Most professionals would be happy as pie if they can grow their portfolios at a rate of 15-20% a year, year over year. Only the best of the professionals have come anywhere near that for a sustained period of time.

Oh, and one other thing. Chaz seems to forget that every once in a while we do get bear markets . Er, Chaz, what would a stock market decline of 30% every couple of years do to your estimates?



To: DYW who wrote (6819)5/20/1999 3:54:00 AM
From: chaz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7111
 
You're not reading carefully enough....I doubt there is any one stock that has done this. Maybe, but I'm not going to go looking it up on that slim chance.

History is not much use as far as individual picks for tomorrow are concerned. The value of "The Gorilla Game" is that it will tell you where, and how, to look, and what to look for. If you don't think this is possible (to find stocks that will grow 50% this year), then you can't do it, so save your $26 and don't get the book. But if you do, and then take a look at the two portfolios in my last post, you'll find 11 major companies that have already done 50% or better this year, many with that much running room left for the next seven months.

I know there are stocks, especially techs, that will do this, and I intend to find them, and to buy them. What I find and buy today may not be what I hold five, four, three, two or one year(s) from now, so I don't expect any single stock to grow 50% annually for the next 20 years. All I need is one per year, and it doesn't matter which one. That's why history doesn't matter. What performed for you or me last year has nothing to do with this year.

For example: Yesterday evening Dell announced a quarterly number that was roughly 50% better than the year ago quarter, but fell $4 and change today. The earnings indicates to those who are watching Dell that it's future earnings appear not as great as they did six months ago, so it's worth less, in spite of 50% earnings growth. Dell is up 114% for the year, but it's a long term sell....because there are better opportunities, from now, on those two lists.

If you were watching that (G&K Candidates) thread, you'd have been out of Dell in March. Today, you'd be buying NT, MSFT, SEBL, UNPH, QCOM, GMST...and probably all of them will give you that 50%.

A lot of people here, me included, put a lot of effort into understanding Radica. What we missed, all of us, is that the market does not place (currently) a high value on undervalued stocks. Until it does, and even if it does, RADA is going nowhere....not like the richer techs in the center ring. Face it, foreign stocks don't get respect in the U.S. market....by which I mean earnings multiples. I now think it's a fool's errand to think they should, and to make buying decisions based on what I think everyone else ought to think.

So you're free to disagree totally with me on this, as no doubt many will. But that simply doesn't change the possibility that $2,000 in a Roth IRA for 20 years, picking stocks that grow 50%, equals $19 mil.

For many, tech stocks are very scary, and for good reason. For those who read and grasp this book, and follow the G&K Candidate thread, the fright will go away, replaced by knowledge and confidence. That's where the many of the 50% growers are...so I'm going looking for them where they are, instead of where they aren't!