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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (22949)	5/19/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

<<What happened today in the market?>> - seems a bit of a "digestive" action today (yesterday's FED). Lot of stocks rallied - mostly nets and solid high-techs. Of course Dell weighed in a bit and boxmakers were not as popular as the chip guys (following the AMAT nice). Seems the cyclicals sold off after the runup, and a lot more money is coming back to solid high-techs. The most interesting part in all of this from my perspective, was the fact that commodities sagged again. This means inflation fears were overdone, and bonds rallied. Very good. Perhaps this is temporary, but I think that even if commodities go up, I think inflation will be under control. My argument is that there is a lot of excess capacity out there, and so there will be continuing price competition. Plus, consider that a lot of the reason for the fear is oil prices. But, the recent jump in oil prices has been the most dramatic (in percentage terms) in over 40 years. What are the odds that oil is going to go up like that again... zero. No, I think the oil rise is over - if anything, as more oil comes on market from various places that need $ (Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc.), I don't see supply as limited. So, maybe some of the oil hike needs to work itself into the rest of the economy, but the worst damage has already been done. I think the market is digesting all this, and we are headed higher. Expiration Friday is coming up, so some more volatility is ahead of us, and some last minute cosequences of the FED thing will ripple through the market tomorrow and Friday, but I think we are headed up. MSFT was all over the place today - it certainly fell hard when it broke 78 on volume, but recovered with the market. Are these the signs of a final consolidation for a move up? Well, volume is unexceptional, so it's hard to draw any fast conclusions, I'll have to study today's action later on. Morgan