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To: Scott Overholser who wrote (30408)	5/20/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 152472

the US bond & stock market is a magnificent efficient intricate system, with builtin mechanisms that most often work very well if burocrats dont fxxk with it... Volker and Burns fxxked with it and earned recessions I believe Greenspan's biggest fault is managing the stock market... not his job, not in FedRes charter... it is the job of the bond market to compete for money heading to buy stocks... sure, wealth effect has influence on economy... but his illadvised rate hike in spring of 1997 may have been a major reason why currency problems erupted in Thailand and the rest of Asia about 4-5 months later... raising US rates invariably leads to higher USdollar... the Dollar mowed down small Asian currencies in 1997... I believe the FedRes and Greenspan were a major cause for the Asian Meltdown, not the only one... they have a handful of serious problems to be sure -- inefficient conglomerates, cronyism, flooded capacity dont attempt to control a system that has inherent counter-valing controls... accidents happen when the markets incorrectly read what effect the over-control causes... see October 1987 higher bond rates have quieted down the refinancing mortgage market, and some housing starts... might disagree with Caxton on that... housing owns a main mast on the economic clipper ship... higher rates have also raised corp bond rates, thus slowing companies down later, jim