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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26379)	5/20/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Al Serrao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Uncle, I hope you picked up some RMBS. Shorts are on the run. Regards.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26379)	5/24/1999 3:56:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

IIX was well supported at a key level, I was concerned about the 312 level which has been a low going back quite some time, the coil like configuration worried me a lot but a bounce and a retest showed some interest. DOT is the other factor.. I would think that above 632 we would see some renewed interest and so would IIX benefit if we break this 318 area resistance. I am looking at 610-615 on DOT interestingly and also 312 on IIX, look at these charts and wait for initiation of positions at this level, until we see a clear bounce of these supports which are key supports. quote.yahoo.com Please notice this coil very clearly in this IIX chart and look at the rebound. this is the graphic representation of that lower highs and higher lows a coil ready to snap like a bhumbo.... from 990 to 1130 or 1130 to 1360... the problem here is that whichever side it breaks it breaks strong for me I am biased on the up.... but for me it is important to highlight the formation and risk reward.. clearstation.com I still see no technical reason to long these stocks at these levels when most of the indexes and leaders show a downward bias, bottom fishing is good but let the market show me the direction, let this IIX thing sort out its direction. It would be great if all these individual stocks components of DOT and IIX start trending higher and bounce of 50 days supports.. I will like EBAY to break 200 ATHM 150 CMGI 245 and AOL 136, these are the levels at which I would think that momentum is returning to the market, unless these levels break you may have better opportunities to enter at lower levels. These charts show me no indication of bottom fishing, IIX at 312 shows me one trade and that long puts at 280 and long calls of 330, which ever side it will break the premium lost on one side will be adequately compensated by the move... quote.yahoo.com BKX we have been underweight in this area and have used our short positions very well, I am looking at this chart and feel that 840-50 test is on cards, look at MER and C where 50 days MA have been taken out decisively, until 907 break on 2 closing basis this remains an underweight sector for couple of weeks. quote.yahoo.com^bkx&d=b quote.yahoo.com I highlighted alongwith IIX, 2520 support for Comp that also held very well, although 2509 was tested inter day we bounced off very nicely to close around 2520, since Mid March we are looking at this phenomenon of consolidation.. good basing on a higher level.... quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=1ym I need to see 2555 taken out for this market move up, that will only come if economic data confirms a slow down, I would think that my call on bonds has been so far doing well as I factored in European numbers which were lower than expected, we also are seeing some divergent cycles in Europe, France Industrial production numbers were stronger than expected although Germany came with weaker numbers, I would like to think that unless Europe see a turnaround in economic fortunes and activity the fears of inflation may have been overblown. Notwithstanding low savings of US citizens, the world is ready to make investments in US, a continued higher current account deficit sustained with low interest rates alongwith strong $ adds up to indication of continued global investors interest in US markets. The foreigners returns on US investment are much higher than the investments in their own countries. Productivity factors, efficiency and recent information innovations are helping US economy to tread along the path of non-inflationary growth. If Us $ starts weakening and global economies resume growth along the model of US, the money inflows may stop that may impact US bond markets and may see a sharp decline in US asset values. The best way to keep US going is to have that growth continued and maintain a strong check and balance on creeping under currents of inflation. The markets and long term money is adjusting to ground realities very well and with declared Fed stance towards tightening we may see actual rally in US long term bonds if Fed ever proceeds to tighten. The capacity and production gap is still wide until that starts to narrow down commodity prices alone may not lead to inflation. I may remind that commodities constitute only 30 percent of production costs it is the wage pressures that will blow the lid from the top. Recently new articles have started appearing that the low inflationary environment is a result of good luck. It is low oil prices and imported dis-inflation that is the root cause of this present economic boom in US or a strong GDP growth. If you look at OSX chart, 52 week low has been 45, before that we have seen firmer prices in Oil averaging 18-26$ however the movement of this bull run continued along side this seemingly high prices of oil.. quote.yahoo.com^SPX&d=5ym What we call now as higher oil prices were a norm from Jan 95 at the start of this bull run to 99, if this bull run was sensitive to oil prices we should have not seen the bull market, I concede that last one year corporations have benefited from lower oil prices but to hinge the bull run to oil prices is stupid , lower oil prices has hurt US and global exports to a great extent, rather benefit of lower prices are more than offset by the negatives, the commodity rich developing world like Brazil and newly freed growing global corruption infested economies like Russia and eastern Europe have a certain dependency on stable oil price. With stable oil price they are better buyers of western capital products and are able to service their global obligations timely, lesser threats of defaults help bonds more than blip in oil prices. The financial markets instruments disinflation is a bigger threat to global financial institutions, we cannot think of a world that is dependent on sellers and consumers only, like Ford once said I need wealthy workers who can afford my cars. US needs wealthy nations to import and use US products. Oil price stability and commodity price stability provides more benefits than problems. The bond yields of low category debt diverged heavily from first class treasury last Sept, it was the threat of default from developing world economies that rattled LTCM in Sept, stable and firmer oil prices makes world economies little more prosperous and accord them stability. FT and Economist buy this line of argument. I think this is erroneous. From 500 to 1375 SPC in last four years have seen a lot of cycles and during the course the average oil price range has been 16-22$. We only saw oil price below 10$ for few months or so, if you compare oil prices with SPC you can see that this bull run based on strong corporate earnings and strong GDP growth is independent of commodity prices. This post CPI new analogy is based on short term yearly chart of oil and SPC, you stretch charts a little and the story is very different. New paradigm of economy is not a hoax, rather in post war era we have seen fastest growth in productivity and efficiency. Greater global openness and opportunities that makes us all prosperous and better geared towards future, along the way this problems This has been the case for quite some time now, a deviation of any number like CPI number have resulted in new debate, but I would consider that recent Oil price jump is not a threat to world economic stability. Oil prices until late 97 were higher than what they are today, if higher Oil prices should have been the cause of concern this US economic prosperity and bull market would have died a premature death.