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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dfloydr who wrote (45074)	5/20/1999 8:52:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

D. Floyd; good thoughts on owning producers here... <<Upon awakening, I bailed out of everything that owns or builds rigs and have parked most of it in stocks that already own and are producing oil or gas.>> BINGO ! ... this is so purely logical; as they are benefiting fundamentally, right here and right now from these higher Oil & Gas prices versus driller & service stocks - only benefiting on the ''expectations'' of better fundamentals & earnings down the road. Untill the actual fundamentals change; this is a thinking man's bet - in heavilly over-weighting the producers imho. But, that changes if we reach value levels in individual stocks - to where the longterm hold return potential overcomes the nearterm fundamentals. RIG at $18-22 , PGO $14, VTS $14-16, CAM sub $28 -30, WFT $26-7ish, SDC $16ish etc. become must buys if we reach these levels again... I will trim some E&P/Integrated Oils to buy these stocks if they reach those price points. I have been about 75% weighted in E&P/Integrated producers versus driller & service/OSX stocks; since the original bounce off of OSX 70-77. However, if we retrace to OSX 63-68ish - I will buy individual stocks when they retrace like RIG & VTS yesterday. I'll probably go no lower than a 50:50 weighting even on a dramatic blowoff in the OSX. Also, fwiw - I am concentrating my OSX buying into just a very few individual companies. Holding mainly RIG PGO VTS and looking at CAM, WFT, SDC on any major selloff from here. Still holding a moderate position in FLC - for now with the Falcon; I'm keeping light on my feet - this one, I will add heavy on, but only when we see a definite turn in fundamentals. When we near that 150 GOM Rig count and see dayrates moving up; and are still at $17ish+ Oil - then I load the boat on FLC. I won't mind giving up some early stage upside here (say the $10 to $18 run up) in return for elimnating virtually all of the risk. If we have 135+ GOM rigs at work by Oct and FLC is at $18 - I load the boat, becuase it will be a $30 stock in a $18 Oil & 150 GOM Rig count enviroment. (I'll give up the first $8 here, for the less risk next $8 - $12). Concerning RIG's selloff - this one large big block, was a near panic sell. 800K shares is a large block, but this could have been worked off over 4-5-6-7 days without really blowing off the stock. They could have saved nearly $1 Million dollars by ''working'' the sale if they only relized an extra $1 a share by spreading out the sale. This can only be interpreted as a panic sale imho. Either someone needed to raise capital in a hurry - and RIG was one of, or '' the'' vehicle chosen (?), or more likely - someone just wanted out of RIG and wanted out NOW ! Some of this may have to do with complex tax issues for fund managers, given the Cayman incorporation - but, the literal dump of this block was of a ''time is of essence'' nature ?...indeed; this does make one think that - ''someone'' knows something... RIG even with the worst case scenario, becomes a must have - longterm hold here anywhere below this $24 range. Personally, I bailed at $27 on the weakness it was displaying; and just threw out a limit of 1/3rd of my original position and got lucky and caught the low. If RIG turns quickly upward; I get a lower cost basis, but I get caught with a much lighter holding...and have to chase it up if I want to own more. For now; I'm betting that where there is one seller like this - there may be more; and am thinking it will continue to sell of here for a bit. Who knows - $20, or even $18 ? There is no ''logic'' in making a prediction here on where support is - becuase this is an ''emotional'' reaction... it just depends on where the Institutions want to start buying. If there isn't a big ''cloud'' coming - I can't see RIG not getting bought heavy, with some nice 50K - 100K block buys flowing in at $22ish.... if there is a bad news ''secret'' - who knows ? RIG has reversed off of these scenarios with good buying support in the past. I am sitting again around $21ish and will load below that at $18ish. Just too solid of a company not to chase lower from here, but I wouldn't be chasing $1 moves - let it break down to catch intra-day trading lows - set limits $3 below the last buy, making it worth your while to average in imho... Throwing my fishing lines in the water; 10-12 of them on limit buys; sometimes I get lucky and catch an intra-day low like RIG yesterday... Hooks & Lines in the water, baited for RIG SDC WFT CAM PGO VTS MRO OEI HSE XTO UPR ...on any major selloffs. good luck all

To: dfloydr who wrote (45074)	5/20/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: Maya	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

And let them rule the world with that! I don't think western world would allow that. Political agenda will override your thoughts.

To: dfloydr who wrote (45074)	5/20/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 95453

re: where will the funds flow that will develop the hydrocarbon sources for the next twenty years? You forgot one important part of the nightmare: At irregular intervals, and without any warning, those Gulf nations have a war/revolution, and overnight their oil costs 3 times as much as yesterday, if you can get it. A secure oil source is worth paying for. There is a clear analogy with food. The Saudis grow wheat, that costs about 5 times as much to grow as the price we'd sell it to them for. Same thing with Japan and rice. Same thing with the massive European food subsidy programs. As long as Brent is going to be managed in the 18-20 range, drilling will happen in places like off the north coast of Alaska.