To: Herm who wrote (10860 ) 5/21/1999 5:01:00 PM From: Jon Tara Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
Herm, I went ahead and started a pretty agressive (for me) HWP put position today - June 95's. I risked my recent profits from SUNW and DELL calls. Technically, I am still concerned, though, that HWP could be forming a flag here, and could make another big run up within a few days. I do note that HWP doesn't seem to hold peaky highs very well (see 5/12/98 and 1/29/99). On the other hand, it's held this one better than in the past. But the stochastic probably crossed below the signal today (I haven't downloaded my end-of-day data yet), the price is WAY above the 50 and 200 day moving averages (and has never been able to keep this kind of break away from the averages in the past), and it hit the top of the best regression channel I could draw - on 5/18, it also touched the top on 2/1. You can see what it did after each of these dates. Normally, I think of short or put plays in stocks that are doing poorly. But how many times have I wished that I'd gone short (or bought puts) on a stock that I was long? I'm sure we've all thought that. When you are long a stock for a while, you get to know how it trades, and you know when it's gone to far and is prone to correction. So, I was intrigued to see you - long HWP - taking an interest in playing the short side. so, I'm going with your gut feeling and what the bulk of my technical analysis points to. On my very short-term MACD of RSI indicator, it looks like HWP could get a boost on Monday or Tuesday. Since HWP didn't get "pegged" by options, I doubt there will be much Monday-after-expirations effect on HWP, though, and any buying Monday should be mostly "natural" buying. I am looking for a quick move to 90 for a profit of perhaps 50%. Because I am using June puts, it has to be fast or premium erosion will eat away at my position. I will re-assess (mostly market) if I get a move to 90 to decide whether to stay in for a possible move to 85, or perhaps roll forward. If I think it's iffy at that point or might take more time than I'd thought, I'd prefer to be further out and more in-the-money. I am looking to be out of this next week on this position, though. I missed out on a wild hunch yesterday. I was going to buy expiring SUNW May 62 1/2 puts for 1/2. I don't know if you follow the "max pain" theory of option expiration, but the "max pain" point for SUNW was 60. I figured it would be drawn to SOME strike price in any case, and figured that 62.5 was unlikely, since that's a leftover pre-split strike, and these oddball strikes tend to get little interest. (Heck, I even had trouble trying to enter an order, because my broker uses an oddball non-standard notation - like, say SUQMAY65P. How was I to know that the proper way to enter the 62.5 was SUQMAY62P, leaving off the 1/2? :) ) In a great stroke of "woulda coulda", of course, SUNW closed today just a tad above 60, and the May 62 1/2 puts closed at a bid of 2 1/4... Sorry, none of this has anything to do with CCing. :) I'm still watching and waiting for BYND. I'm wating for either a definative turn or lower-still prices before initiating a long position, from which I will attempt CCs on what I hope I will recognize as peaks.