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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (45097)	5/20/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

Seeing a fascinating pattern emerge that some on this thread (months ago) predicted would occur. All kinds of bad news coming out from analysts/press ahead of API numbers reflecting OPEC cuts. At the same time you can pick nearly any high volume stock (I checked GLM, SDC, RIG, FLC, and DO) and see that institutional buy interest outweighs sell interest (except RIG). Smart money is proving PT Barnum right. There really is a sucker born every minute!!

To: Gary Burton who wrote (45097)	5/20/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

DLJ est 2000 ....RIG $1.50 target 30...DO$1.00 target 32...FLC 30c target 17

To: Gary Burton who wrote (45097)	5/20/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Sell Deepwater co's that will make $1.50-$2 - buy Shallow Wtr drillers w/o any earnings ? ....DLJ did an infamous dirty deed last year - pumping EVI - now WFT; right before an huge sell by an affilliated/insider company. I allways question their timing and motives ? They have a good research dept, but you have to sit back and ask why timingwise ? Sell RIG & DO who will earn $1.00-$2.00+ this year and buy shallow water drillers who will not earn ''any'' money this year - WHY ? RIG has a lower PE than these damn jack up drillers right here .... ! Time to sit and wait for RIG at $18-20ish.....imho if the Institutions are following DLJ's line of thinking. The jack up and land drillers look overpriced in comparison to DO & RIG here imo. Tell me that shallow water is going to reach a point (150 GOM Rigs working) to where the dayrates have risen to a level where the Jack Up Drillers are making money and that the Deepwater Drillers will not also share in the upturn ! - someone explain that scenario with a straight face.... Huge projects in deepwater getting seismic action right now, offshore Africa, the GOM, offshore Asia will all see upside with the sustainability of $16-18 Oil and with the 2000 Cap Ex increases from the Intnl Oils & Independants. I pray they sell DO & RIG off here.... I like ESV at about $13 fair value here imho.... RDC about $12 and UTI $10 and PTEN $6 given current fundamentals. I would buy SDC on any $1 1/2 - $2 dip here, as a joint play on shallow water and land, with a superior balance sheet and better International diversification, and harsh enviroment niches with better dayrates; than perhaps ESV RDC MRL GLM et al. For me - RIG, or DO (50:50 ? - I prefer RIG), SDC and a little FLC for leverage (if we see 150 GOM rigs soon - FLC wins biggest) and that covers the bases... Also; why is anyone excited about FLC at $9 bucks here as some kind of bargain ? Been cheaper before and may be again. PS the ''smart money'' got out at $11 1/2 on that big spike day (not me though... I trimmed at $10 & a tic) I don't think FLC is a particular bargain here given the news and the total lack of an upside driver for FLC in the nearterm. I see no reason for any buying support for FLC here - every institution in the world has had months to buy it cheap, real cheap, cheaper than this and I think they will sell into strength here and trim positions off of this latest cancellation. I do not think that many institutions will look at the risk vs reward scenario on FLC, off of this Rig Cancellation news, and into the face of a Crude Oil retracement and say - hey; time to buy more FLC at $9 ? Hope I'm wrong, but FLC looks like a deadmoney- waffler for a litle while. Someone tell me why any institution buys more FLC here ? What news event is going to move FLC above $9-10 here nearterm ? ...maybe, if we get an unforseen spike in Crude Oil - but that won't be untill June 10th at the soonest - when OPEC reports compliance #'s... I think FLC bleeds for 2-3 weeks+ here imo. I think it's worth the risk here to wait for a real blow/bleed off in FLC to say $8, or lower ? I will have 3 weeks imho, to be able to buy FLC at $9ish (nothing to take it higher) - why not wait and see where this selloff on bad news takes us bottomwise ? At the very least I wouldn't buy, add to FLC before the sector and crude Oil turns back up... FLC's best friend here, is a sector and/or crude Oil rebound... they are like a punch drunk fighter imho.... wobbling on weak legs and they need the bell badly here ! - the bell being a sector and crude oil bounce..... Don't get me wrong - I love FLC; and I ain't selling totally out. But, this is NOT a stock to chase a $1 move on imho.... when things are bad - they get reeeeeeeeal bad for FLC, when things get good, they'll get reeeeeeeal good.... right now; they is not lookin all too good imho. .... bwdik - I'm staying mainly in good 'ole domestic Natural Gas producers - the hell with all of this OPEC, low rig utilization, rig cancellation, low dayrate stuff ! Gas is going to ''The Moon Alice'' - this winter.... ! and I want to own those who own and will be selling that Gas !