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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (45121)	5/20/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Anyone know what yard is doing the build on the Falcon 100? eom

To: Big Dog who wrote (45121)	5/20/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

On the note of shallow water & land drilling upside - I would be... I would be reading all the 10 K's & Q's and analyst reports on the Independant E&P's here. With a huge increase in cash flow off of the rise in crude oil & gas prices - the catalyst will be when these E&P's pocket about 2 quarters of this higher revenue and start feeling good about increasing drilling. However; they may NOT crank up drilling activity untill next year - late Q1; as the Banking community and analysts seem to be placing heavy pressure on these companies to pay down debt and repair the balance sheets first. If they do delay stepping up drilling activity by the end of Q3 - I think we are set up for one of the biggest potential price spikes in Natural Gas prices in years. There are some excellent analyst reports out there; there are simply, not enough rigs drilling for Nat Gas in the US to meet demand and replenish supply. I think there are a couple of credible analyst reports laying out a better than just '' possible'' scenario's for $4 - 5- 6 Nat Gas if we have any type of a normal, or let alone a harsh winter. I think Raymond James has a good report on Gas Prices available on Multex's site.... While the ''bet'' here on these E&P stocks is NOT on this huge spike in Gas prices - they are great buys on just $2.00 + mcf gas; but ''if'' - just ''if'' the drilling doesn't pick up dramatically and pick up soon - the upside is allmost scary.... one winter of $4.00+ mcf Gas will send some of these small caps to the moon indeed.... $6, 7, and someone even laid out the formula for the potential of $9 nat gas - can you imagine ? --- $9 Nat Gas ? Impossible - you say ? Remember the 1000% price gouging in the electric power brokering a while back. When these Power Companies/Utilities ran short - the price of "electricity'' spiked 1000% ! If we get $9 Nat Gas - I'll be able to quit my day job (VBG)... For buying UTI PTEN et al - I'd watch how the domestic E&P's are spending their money and ''if'' they revise their cap ex spending to a more aggressive drilling schedule.... if they don't - it's a ''win-win'' for the E&P's - they get lower dayrates/drilling costs and are set up for a Nat Gas price windfall and are not dependant on OPEC related matters... food for thought. Also, if they don't increase drilling activity soon, then this entire buy the land driller, shallow water scenario is still a little too early imho.