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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (30436)	5/20/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Sun Tzu and Katherine, Thanks for the info. You are a great source of information. The reason I was disappointed with the BtB number was that my recollection of several semicap makers' BtB number was about 1.3. So I expected AMAT's to be actually above 1.3 rather than 1.24. I doubt that AMAT is production limited at these levels, but if you think differently please let me know. IF however this is the case, then AMAT will not be able to meet my projected revenue target of $8.3B. BTW, the high end of my valuation scale (i.e 4.5x previous revenue and 2x forward revenue) both come up with about the same number for AMAT (mid 40s~low 50s). It is not unheard of to record orders a few day later in order to record the data in another quarter to impact appearances is it? Remember, CEO Morgan has established a high 3rd quarter of $.50-.54. No, business does not do that!<VBG> Right Gottfried? Just my $.02. Paul

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (30436)	5/20/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

I actually thought you were talking about the industry BtB, which was 1.28 for April, down from 1.33 (I think?) in March. It's a little surprising for AMAT's to be less than the industry's, but that could just mean that they're able to ramp shipments up faster, or that shipments didn't drop as far for them. Either would be a good thing IMO. I doubt that anyone is production-limited at 1.3ish, but that could start to be a problem were the (industry) BtB to climb above 1.4 or stay at 1.3 for several months. Katherine