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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (2882)	5/20/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Art Vandelay AIA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

My take on the recent action is that it's more individual traders than institutions that are driving it down. If you compare the last week's institution %age, it has been 80+% of the known trades. Today it was more like 55%, which, to me, means that there are people out there getting squeezed/panicked. I know I just got a nice juicy margin call, and I don't think I'm alone. I've never seen statistics on it, but I bet that SEPR investors, as a group, tend to be more margined and higher concentrated than those of other stocks. I think this is a function of these points: 1) The stock went up upon up upon up for almost a year, with the exception being a few pullbacks, but a net 200% increase in that time. Those that weren't leveraged (via options or margin) or sold at points along the way saw potential profits left on the table, so you can bet that many were heavily exposed for this downdraft. 2) The fundamental story is soooooooo good. Management has shown class and conservatism at every step. They don't exaggerate and with the exception of some timetable slippage, they've always kept their promises. When's the last time you saw that in a biotech? Also, the product line is a diversified portfolio of improvements on proven blockbuster drugs - many of which will be converted to a low cost stream of cash flows from licensing deals (low operating/profitability risk). With this good of a story, it's easy to be a believer instead of a skeptic. 3) Support from the analysts. We were really a darling, with only one naysayer. Even now, we're still pretty popular to those that analyze this on a long term basis. Where is the bottom? I don't know. I'm not a technician, and each one that was calling for the double bottom base to have been formed at 118, 108, 98, 88 or 78 has been wrong. All I can say is that regardless of where the bottom or top is, we'll end up over 400 by 2004 if we make our $12. I'll pay off my margin balance with my bonus and lick my wounds, but I'm sure as hell not selling at these prices. Hindsight being 20/20, I'd love to have kept some cash on the side for a rainy day (it's pouring right now), but you have to look at this as if each day is a new day, and I think that buying SEPR for 72 is an absolute JOKE. Do I think it could go down? Sure. But, long term, it's going way up. Whoever is lucky enough to have money around or to time it right on options or leaps will be very happy in due time. BTW, a takeover isn't looking too bad right around now, and I betcha the institutions would take $120 and run if they could, Saks included. Good luck, my friends, and take solace in the fact that you aren't alone. Nobody ever said this would be easy. In fact, do what Tea did last June. Go to sleep and set your alarm clock for 100.