To: Tony Viola who wrote (81277 ) 5/21/1999 12:13:00 PM From: Harry Landsiedel Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 186894
Tony Viola. Re: Ann. Meeting. Thanx for posting your notes. Also thanx for posting the NYTimes article. All most informative. Here is a recent write-up on Intc from Bear Stearns, focusing on the implications of intc's hi-end chips. Things Are Looking Up; Maintain Buy ----------------------------------------------------------------- *** Key Points: While the formation of the Intel 64 Fund, a venture capital fund to invest in technology companies focused on software development for the IA-64 (Intel Architecture 64), has little short-term impact, it highlights an important shift that we believe will take place in investor perception towards the significant and positive implications of the entry into the high- end, i.e., 64-bit, market. Specifically, a great deal of attention is focused on the implications of Intel's low-end. To us, the larger story over the next few years is the implications of Intel's introduction of a 64-bit product family, starting with "Merced" (the code name) in mid-2000 and "McKinley" in 2001 (followed by "Madison" and "Deerfield.") Intel said it formed a $250 million fund with leading technology companies (Compaq, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, NEC and SGI) and venture capitalists with a focus on "technology first, return on investment second." The lead investors were focused on companies that were not in the operating system business (i.e., Microsoft, IBM) to maintain objectivity. *** Quantifying The High End. While this approach is a rough estimate, we believe we have the right order of magnitude: we believe that the incremental impact of Intel's entry into the 64- bit market could be significantly incremental and profitable. Today, Intel has a microprocessor business which was around $21- $22 billion in 1998 with average selling prices of around $220- $230. The high-end of the computer market, which Intel will target with IA-64, could be as large as its existing market with selling prices in the $800-$3,000 range. Our projection is based on the size of the high end, which could be a $120 billion equipment market of which we would estimate that the microprocessor content could be in the $20-$30 billion range (which is a speculative numbers since most high-end vendors such as IBM or H-P do not sell their chips on the merchant market). *** No Change In Outlook. As to the outlook, no change in our estimates of $2.25 for 1999 and $2.55 for 2000. The stock remains a Buy. BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. EQUITY RESEARCH HL