Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Curtis who wrote (11280)	5/20/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Rich Wolf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

John, need to modify your assumptions about 'production' and 'quarantine parameters,' I think. They currently report using a two-week quarantine period, down from one month at the time of the shareholders meeting. Once steady production is attained under a given contract, they may reduce to one week. The 'chambers' (boxes, whatever) that hold the product in quarantine only hold 2x45,000 = 90,000 cells. They'd have product out the wazoo right now, in boxes piled high, if they were producing daily. And material and labor costs would require heavy borrowing. Consider that the repackagers also probably don't want to receive 100,000 cells at once, but more continuous shipments of smaller quantities. Imagine then a steady stream from Valence, to the repackager, and then on to the OEM. More sensible than a 'hurry up and wait' labor management approach. Once they start producing daily, within a month they'd have two weeks' worth of shippable product. So when they get a PO, it's probably only a month to shipping. Or less, if they've produced some product ahead of time. When they ship, they book revenue and announce within another week or so. So I don't think Lev ramps to daily 8-hour runs until he knows he's got a committed buyer. Then we find out 4-6 weeks later. Unless the 'tape' tells us first.... ;-)