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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (14553)	5/20/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bearshark, based on current evidence i would expect the stock market to go through a rather sobering summer. while the possibility of new highs can not be ruled out entirely, it looks increasingly remote. if a marginal new high is indeed in the offing, i would regard it as an excellent shorting opportunity. i don't know if you look at the sentiment page, but as i have recently pointed out there, the last bearish hold-outs, namely the index options traders, have begun to show signs of throwing in the towel. this happens just at the moment when investment newsletter writers' bullishness is close to a historic peak and interest rates are clearly trending up. i am not so sure that we will merely see the usual run-of-the-mill correction, as many seem to expect. last fall's crisis was merely a preview of the possibilities imo. investors have been conditioned to believe that no decline lasts longer than a few months at most and that it's off to the races again thereafter.this is a dangerous attitude as numerous examples in history have shown. while i agree that a long term bull market is not easily thrown off course, the current one looks mightily extended. a shakeout looms. regards, hb