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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (40125)	5/21/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

HI Bill; Well from 96 to mid 98 the S&P was flying up at about a 40% per year rate, then something went wrong, going from mid 98 to now we have slowed to a little over a 12% rate..the bull is showing it's age. The pundits on CNBC have to please their clients and use a lot of tricks to do it. Even the indexes are made to look like the market is doing better than it is, as a lot of money goes to money heaven and many stocks just fall off the radar screen and are never mentioned again. It's the winners that the pundits focus on the most, with just a casual mention of the ones who get de-listed. Then they also talk up a High point in the market comparing it to the last low point, but apples to apples says we need to compare highs to highs, and lows to lows, keeping in mind the indexes are an enhancing tool more than just a reality check, bringing in winners while not continuing to track the dogs. This Bull is losing steam , while I see it going on I don't see it maintaining the rate of gain it did in the 96 to 98 time frame, and I expect the next correction within 3 months to exceed percentage wise the one we had last July to Oct. If anything is really on the rise it's volatility, and it's in a trap now, as if volatility stalls the big money in derivatives all goes to waste in a flat market they won't stand for that. They are making more in the derivatives market than the raw market and need volatility to keep it alive. Jim