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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8626)	5/21/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: Ken Holbert, Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Interesting article found on ZDNET.com, it seems that more people are honing their interest to more narrowly focused sites. "Are Web surfers fleeing portal sites? A new study shows major Web sites lost traffic in April. Was it warming weather -- or the start of a trend? By Lisa M. Bowman, ZDNN May 20, 1999 1:11 PM PT Traffic to the major sites on the Internet fell during the month of April, as folks in northern climates left their computers to emerge from hibernation and a more sophisticated Web audience visited more narrowly focused sites. But the question remains: is the month's decline a blip -- or the start of a significant trend of Web visitors abandoning portal sites? Portals are vast collections of content offered by companies including Yahoo! Inc., Lycos and Go Network. Add your comments to the bottom of this page. It marks the first time that Web traffic researcher Media Metrix has reported a month-to-month dip in the total number of users tapping into the Internet's top-rated sites. The total number of unique visitors to the top 25 Web properties fell .4 percent to 64.97 million in April, down from 65.25 million in March. This according to a study of the top Media/Web properties at home and at work by Net research firm Media Metrix Inc. Web traffic to those sites had grown steadily in recent months. What's more, all but one of the top five sites lost traffic, the report said. Lycos (Nasdaq:LCOS) was the biggest loser, falling 9 percent to 28.90 million unique visitors. American Online Inc. (NYSE:AOL), Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO), and The Walt Disney Co.'s Go Network also lost visitors. The only top-five property to gain traffic was Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT). Reasons behind the decline Analysts attributed the flight from the major sites to a more sophisticated audience, and the beginning of daylight savings time. Television experiences a similar drop in viewership starting in the spring, as people in colder climates emerge from their houses and begin to spend more time outdoors. Analysts think the same trend is showing up on the Web. MORE FROM ZDNET: New Nielsen Net rating system debuts In addition, the Web audience has become more educated about the contents of the Internet. People don't automatically go to portal sites such as Yahoo! or AOL to find information, as they did in the old days. Instead they go directly to specific sites that meet their needs, such as those aimed at sports, travel, or women. "This doesn't mean people are abandoning the Web," said Allen Weiner, vice president of analysis at NetRatings Inc., which studies Web traffic. "We're beginning to see a more focused vision." Some gains reported In fact, several of the more vertical sites gained traffic from March to April. iVillage, women.com, Travelocity and Preview Travel saw big jumps during that time. Weiner said the trend toward narrower sites would continue into the future, and he said they could be more appealing to advertisers because they target a specific demographic. "We're going to see a whole new tier of portals," Weiner said. Clay Rider, an analyst at Zona Research, also attributed the decline in traffic to tax time and the beginning of television sweeps. But he said a one-time decline shouldn't be cause for panic. "Unless it's a sustained, ongoing thing, we shouldn't worry," Rider said. "If we get fixated on the short term, we'll lose sight of what's important overall." With a difference so small, some Web publishers are likely to blame the dip on statistical vagaries in measuring audiences on the Internet. Methods that track usage by sample groups and use the data to project more broad audience totals have come under renewed scrutiny in the past month. A preliminary study released earlier this month by the Future of Advertising Stakeholders industry group indicated that sample measurements, such as those Media Metrix compiled, undercount traffic by as much as one-third when compared with traffic logged at the servers operated by large publishers. Audience measurement companies now are working with publishers to identify issues that may reconcile the differences between server log data and sample-based audience estimates." Steven Vonder Haar, Inter@ctive Week, contributed to this report

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8626)	5/21/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Zeev, I don't disagree with you at all. IPO windows open and close. Michael Olds and I had a long discussion a few weeks ago where I urged them to take advantage of the window while it was open, and he took the position that they needed a strategic investment or a private placement because he wanted maximum control long term over the subsidiaries. The only place I disagree at all is on the cash requirements of the subsidiaries. All were moderately profitable in the past, and the cash infusions have been fairly limited so far. It is true that their cash burn rates are rising, but I doubt they are up to $4 million per quarter. Unlike BCST they have a business model that is likely to be profitable, and the fact that they seem to have some pricing power is very positive. I don't think AXC is in any position to put much money into the subs at all after exercising the options, though. That is why I expect IPO's on the subs fairly soon, hopefully before the window closes. Carl

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8626)	5/21/1999 9:23:00 AM
From: killybegs	Respond to of 17679

Carl, Zeev Things aren't that desperate, gentlemen. First of all, IPO's are not the only way to finance growth. It's silly to insist that Ampex must do one in the next 6-12 months etc. They should do one when the time is right to do it I'll come back with more detail and background, but I think your views on cash consumption by core operations are inadequately informed. They are good cash generators, with very high return on assets and needed working capital is largely self financed. Visibility of revenues, for example, on DIS is good looking out three years; it's just lumpy quarter to quarter, because it is budgeted, government spending. Profit margins are high here; very little competition in their segment of the market....etc I'll come back with more... Re financing of growth, I think you haven't considered the business models of all entities involved. I expect that, like the ISS LLC/Executive Branch venture and TvontheWeb's underwriter sponsored channels, growth will be financed with other peoples' money, assets, advertising time etc..... Finally, let's use terms correctly. Cash burn and equity investments in affiliates are not synonymous. Cash burn is, like Robert Burns says about snow in Tam O'Shanter, "a moment white, then melts forever". An investment is an asset. Eventually, it may melt away and reasonable people can debate whether Ampex's strategy will result in real appreciation of their assets. Talking about cash burn now and making projections without seeing the affiliates' operational info is foolish. That's a discussion that will have to wait until TvontheWeb's info is consolidated...