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To: tonyt who wrote (57677)5/21/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Investment Highlights:
* The most striking data point in the April web ratings was the sequential
decline in estimated overall web users—from 61.6 million in March to
61.1 million in April. The numbers are extrapolated from a relatively small
sample and one month does not make a trend, but this is only the second
sequential decline in the last year (estimated users dropped from October to
November, possibly the result of a change in methodology). If the decline
were to be the start of a trend, it would obviously have significant
implications for the industry and the stocks. Please see inside.
* The reach of most of the major network dropped in April—likely the result
of lighter overall web usage. AOL Sites (AOL; D-1-1-9), maintained the
No. 1 position with 66% reach (down 3 points). Microsoft Sites remained
No. 2 (53%, up 1). Yahoo! reclaimed No. 3 (51%, flat). A suddenly quiet
Lycos dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 (47%, down 5 points). No. 5 Go
Network dropped 4 points to 35%, No. 6 Geocities (32%, down 3 points)
and No. 7 Excite (29%, down 2 points) maintained their positions.
* Time and pageviews matter too — and relative to Microsoft and Yahoo! in
these metrics, AOL's web properties are still weak (we should emphasize
that the web ratings include only AOL's web-based properties; the AOL
service and Compuserve are dominant in reach, time, and pageviews in the
online service market). The average AOL user spent 24 minutes on the sites
in the month (down 3) and generated 27 pageviews (down 1) —about a
third as many pageviews as Yahoo! (64, down 1) and half as many minutes
as the average Microsoft and Yahoo! user.
* Yahoo (YHOO; D-2-1-9; $158 1/4) moved ahead of Lycos (LCOS; D-2-1-9;
$117) in overall reach. In addition, Yahoo!'s minutes and pageviews--
important when it comes to monetizing traffic--are still much higher than
Lycos's and among the highest in the industry: Yahoo! users spent an
average of 65 minutes (down 3) on the sites in the month and looked at 64
pages per month (down 1), more than 3X as many minutes and pageviews
as Lycos users.
* Microsoft's overall reach increased a point to 53%. Microsoft's minutes
and pageviews continued to be among the highest in the industry: 66 (down
5) and 43 (down 1).
* The reach of the Go Network, the new Infoseek-Disney property, fell 4
points. Pageviews and minutes increased, however.
* Amazon.com's (AMZN; D-2-1-9; $139 9/16) reach was flat at 17%, likely
the result of a seasonally slow month.
Bulletin
United States
Internet Software & Svcs
21 May 1999
Henry Blodget
First Vice President Monthly Web Ratings
Analyzing the April Data
Reason for Report: April Web Ratings
Merrill Lynch & Co.
Global Securities Research & Economics Group
Global Fundamental Equity Research Department
RC#10214106
Industry