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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (2090)	5/21/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Freeflight	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

3Com, COMS, will lose 45% of it's revenue overnight to Intel's new network silicon to be installed the PC Bus itself. 3COM will crash in near future sell now! 3Com can't go upmarket cuz Cisco and Lucent are there. 3Com can't go downmarket cuz Intel, Sony and Panasonic are there. Traders keep 3Com hoping for upside resulting from merger or buy out. Investors run away from 3Com like crazy cuz of 44% nic card revenue. SELL, SELL, SELL. Buy healthcare, lots of baby boomers need it. If restricted pooling of interests gets approved in Washington DC then no one will buy 3Com, it will die a slow death like Prime, Honeywell, Wang, ODS, Cabletron, SMC. Sony, Panasonic and GE will crush 3Com's toe in the consumer waters called, the Palm Pilot. All it did is show consumer gorilla's the space is there. It was US Robotics strategy to buy Palm NOT Eric's Benihaha's and staff. They make smart decision's like buy Chipcom...ha ha. Palm Pilot core engineering staff and executives have ALL left 3Com to start up new companies. What does that say for future of Palm. You have come to the web to learn...well yooop there it iiiisss!

To: Jill who wrote (2090)	5/21/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

last quarter's slowdown would have been a signal to sell Dell I got worried last fall, and sold in January, just before earnings, on the downgrade that come out on a Friday. Got out around 100. I had just bought some more at 110, but I gulped and got out. The thing that has consistently made money for me is the ability to get out. Later this year, I am going to publish a "laundry list" of the 15 "turkeys" I have bought in the last 7 years that I have lost money on, and why they did not hurt me overall. Is a prince a prince forever--? "Once a prince, always a prince, but once a nights....." (Couldn't resist, Jill!). A Prince could become a King, and that could happen to Dell, but it looks like the boxmakers will all be a bunch of princes, with no one dominating. I will be back to Softie. When? I might take some bucks out of Cisco when the trial is settled. MSFT will jump then, but it should double after the trial, IMO. The market is just off Cisco right now. The consensus seems to be that the company is going to have declining margins. I don't think so, but my opinion is a minority one right now. Qualcomm could be "caught" several ways. Mainly, if it failed to execute properly. It's proprietary hold, due to its patients, is even stronger than Intel and Cisco, and equal or better to MSFT, mainly because an antitrust suit, due to the patients, won't hit it. The DOJ normally leaves this type of situation alone. Qualcomm is still a long struggle, with: A: The battle not totally won on CDMA. It will take a few years for the others to give up. B: The Market size available is breathtaking, just on voice alone. When you add in Data, it is so big, it gets scary. C: I think it will double again this year, as the quarterly earnings continue to rise. This, on the other hand, could temporally kill the stock, if they have a bad quarter, due to poor management, or an overseas debacle, such as the Korea episode a few years ago. I really doubt the management will fail to execute. One of the advantages of being a Gorilla in a tornado is that it is very hard not to make money!

To: Jill who wrote (2090)	5/21/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Jill, By definition, a King has 2X the market share of its closest competitor. The box sector is so fragmented I doubt that will happen. You could narrow your scope and look at Dell as the King of the Direct Fufillment Box Sector, but royalty from tiny principalities don't get much respect. IMO, the box sector will be dead money until 4Q. After ignoring LindyBill's good advice for 4 months I liquidated the small remainder of my dell position yesterday at 40 and moved into more Softee and Q. I'm not going to shop story stocks when Gorillas are being offered at bargain prices (msft @ 79 and Q @ 100). Frank btw, nothing blocks you from visiting your friends on the dell thread if you don't have a position.