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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (57722)5/21/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: MSI  Respond to of 164684
 
* Amazon.com Neutral
* Yahoo! Neutral
* Infoseek Neutral
* Lycos Negative


It has to happen.

The exponential curve of users crosses over the increasing supply of sites to be surfed, and even the best sites will have diluted growth. Until that settles I'm in cash and day trades.

Remember the internet is the only phenomenon that has showed an absolutely perfect exponential progression for twenty-five years, of 100% annual growth from 4 arpa sites to 100 million nodes in 1997. The only comparison is crystallization of a supersaturated solution.

That annual doubling has to drop short of exponential because we're almost done with the US and there's a lack of infrastructure in the rest of the world, and the increasing supply of websites reduce keyclicks per site.

Also, the search engines suck (YHOO, SEEK, LYCO), because they sell their souls (selection priorities) to advertisers for short term gain, but in reality this is corrupted data, which slows the natural growth process.

IMO natural exponential growth is dependent on thirst for valid information, and efficiency in the economy, and anyone who increases that efficiency makes $billions, anyone who violates that by making proprietary rules will get killed. PCLN for example wants to own the rules we will live by by patenting every move we make on the net, and then selling them back to us. AMZN is much better since they want to be the best customer service operation in the world, and depend on execution instead of legalized thievery.

Now all they need to do is make a profit at it.