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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (45212)	5/21/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: Howard Frederick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

/// If FLC is risky at 10, how risky is ESV at 18. FLC jackup fleet is larger than ESV's yet hasn't run up anywhere near ESV. If you compare the companies, FLC is undervalued. /// There is one big difference between ESV and FLC. If the recovery in dayrates is pushed back a year or two (say due to a US recession) ESV can weather the storm intact. They pretty much have cash on hand to pay off their debt. FLC would have to dip back into the capital markets, and there is a limit to how much more they can get. Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't they have pretty much pledged all their assets as collateral against loans already?

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (45212)	5/21/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

< ESV. If you compare the companies, FLC is undervalued.> ....ESV is valued here because of it's sterling ''balance sheet'' and huge cash positions - 2nd to only DO ? I don't think FLC gets mentioned in the same breath on that subject. - RDC also ain't going anywhere... Palmer himself is worth a $2 premium imho (VBG). The ''aint going anywhere'' aspect of some companies certainly deserves a premium imho. One stock being optimistically overvalued to a greater extent than another, doesn't make the other a bargain... again; many are missing my point about FLC - I LOVE FLC ! .... but it is a very cold, logically play here; to let the world have virtually ''all'' of the risk in this acknowledged RISKY company - let them take the risk ''here'' untill we see actual, cold, reality based funamental change - ie: 135+ GOM rigs at work and proof of dayrates rising.... FLC ''aint'' breaking over $15 strongly untill then. FLC isn't out of the potential ''bad news'' dog house yet - untill it is - I wouldn't be ''adding'' - now, nothing wrong with having a moderate position here. This keeps you from missing a major unforseen move, but the risk will be virtually gone when the fundamentals reach the point I mentioned earlier. I think FLC trades no higher than $15ish untill then. FLC still has all of its potential ahead of it here.... I want the $18 to $30 + bluesky run... which will be risk-free with 150 GOM rigs at work and $16-18 Oil.... No reason to sell FLC here - but no reason to be pounding the table, or adding to positions here either imho. FLC - buy under $8, or over $18 (VBG) ! I know that doesn't seem to make sense to most folks - but on a risk vs. reward basis it does. SDC is undervalued in comparison to RDC & ESV here and RIG is grossly undervalued... buy the deepwater drillers here as they are being spoken of negatively - the time to buy jack up and land drillers was a few months ago .... or a few months from now.... Anyone access Raymond James Natural Gas forecast analysis... ? Doug Fant, didn't you have someone talk to you about the Energy community talking about the ''possibility'' of near unheard of nat gas price levels potentially this winter ? Just as no one believed that we could see $18 Crude mere months ago - no one will believe where we find ourselves nat gas pricewise in the coming months - I will literally cut 10 years off of my working life - if I am correct. I am making a ''small business'' level ''bet'' that I am...but, I also have little downside having bought these stocks since Jan.... $4 mcf gas is a strong possibility and more than one analyst is talking the logical and mathematical case of $6, 7 + gas..... fwiw.- remember $8 to $18 crude didn't take long and nat gas as a commodity has different dynamics than crude oil - the utility/power generation aspects of the winter heating season. At best this play ''potentially'' has a once in a decade/lifetime investing opportunity and at worst - it is a sector ''double'' for the small cap value plays of off merely the sustaining of over $2.00 mcf gas...