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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (45228)	5/21/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: Now Shes Blonde	Respond to of 95453

Did you pay the 50 for this in Feb ? 2/8 US Natural Gas Prices: Ugly near-term, spiking up next winter. ssb.multexinvestor.com Any mention of the effects of a monster heat wave this summer and the resulting high electrical demand to run air conditioners. Would this not bode well for NG ??

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (45228)	5/21/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Was sitting on the throne reading the FLC Annual Report. Scanned in page 5 (below). It is highly relevant to several topics being discussed today. I wish I could publish the Nat. Gas supply/demand graph. It clearly shows there WILL be a natural gas shortage this winter. If you have the report it is well worth checking out page 5! ALSO NOTE RECENT GAS WELL DECLINE RATES - INCREDIBLE! This will naturally impact drilling favorably. From an examination of various ranges of average worldwide depletion rates, coupled with assumptions for demand growth, startling incremental daily crude oil produc-tion requirements during the next five years emerge. For example, an average depletion rate of 5% and a relatively modest demand growth of 1.5% per annum result in an additional productive capacity requirement of over 32 million barrels per day, a level which exceeds today's OPEC production. U.S. natural gas fundamentals are positive. One of the most striking statistics today in the U.S. natural gas business is the production decline rates for wells drilled in the Gulf of Mexico. During the extended period from 1980 to 1993, average annual decline rates for new wells increased from about 20% to about 35%. However, during the period from 1994 through 1996, the last year for which there is firm information, annual decline rates increased to approximately 45%. This is due chiefly to improved drilling and completion techniques and to the desire by operators to produce the reservoirs as rapidly as possible to increase the present value of their projects. The accompanying chart shows that essentially a ‘just-in-time inventory" system for natural gas supply has developed in the U.S. Following a long period during the 1980s of oversupply, the steady decline in gas productivity in the lower 48 states reached demand level in the early 1990s; the nation's steadily growing demand since then has been satisfied by increased Canadian imports. We believe that demand will continue to increase steadily, to a large degree based on a very high proportion of new gas-fired electric generating capacity. Future gas deliverability could be problematic due to the high depletion rates and the recent significant slow-down in drilling activity, coupled with continued increases in demand. We believe deliverability would already be a problem were it not for the succession of three very mild winters during which the delivery system has not been tested. Accordingly, we believe these factors could lead to much improved gas fundamentals within a relatively short period of time. R&B Falcon has the most leverage in the marine drilling industry to an improving U.S. natural gas outlook, with a total fleet of 88 shallow-water offshore rigs and inland barge rigs used largely for gas drilling. Over 30% of the nation's gas supply is met by Gulf of Mexico and inland water Gulf Coast production.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (45228)	5/21/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, Just back in from the oil fields. Ever been on the "Oh My God" Road as the locals call it in Colorado? Well Raymond James sees the same possibilities that my friends over at a couple of independents that I quoted last week on the Thread - that natural gas could spike. I'm considering some long-term ng options here.... Remember what my buddies in natural gas sales said about the number of natural gas-fired generating units coming on stream this summer. IMO hot summer=cold winter for ng prices... the corollation continues to improve.... Razorbak, you Oz' fan- I have a cool hat for you- send me an address!