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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SafetyAgentMan who wrote (6194)	5/21/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Ladies and Gentlemen: I'm pleased to report the results of the first "inning:" of the Loral price prediction pool. Most of you will recall we started this pool last month to commemorate the first anniversary of our April 21, 1998 all time high. 65 entries were submitted, predicting the high/low/close for the one year period to end April 21, 2000. Winner will be the entry with the lowest sum of the absolute value of error in each of the h/l/c predicts. In the month since the contest began, Loral stock price was pretty good to the longs, even in the face of one failed and two delayed launches. The price was supported by a better than expected earnings report and rumors of a new business relationship with Liberty Media, et. al., and damaged by the meltdown in Iridium. Overall, we were up in the period 1.7 points, or 10%, making our low on the first day of the contest and our high of 20.75 six trading days ago. If we continued at this rate we'll finish the contest at somewhere between 38 (arithmetic growth) and 53 (geometric.). Loral beat the price performance of peers GMH (+9.4%), SPOT (+3%) and IRIDF (-46%!) and major indices Dow (+2.3&) and NASDAQ (+1.2%.) As for the contest standings: as expected, there was no change in the relative standings since the start of the contest, since all entries picked lower lows and higher highs than actually made so far. All but one entry's score improved by the same amount. Of slight interest, one entrant's closing pick of 19 was below our actual close, and the improvement in his score since the beginning of the contest is slightly worse than others. We need a stock price of about 27 for there to be a significant change in the standings, shown below: PlaceEntrantScore 1Mr. Proofsheet 25/14/23 11.19 2Bernard Levy 24/9/20 12.19 3BrianW 32/15/19 13.81 4crawlingbug 33/16/28 22.19 5Dandreaja 22.19 6mmeggs 34/16/30 25.19 7GH 38/15/28 28.19 8ccryder 35,15,32 29.19 9Valueman 35/16/33 29.19 10mtnlion 38/15/31 31.19 11lorlurker 38/16/34 33.19 12rhkgt 37/16/35 33.19 13Still Crazy 88 38/16/35 34.19 14Mr. Adrenaline 39/17/39 38.19 15dabenks 41/15/37 40.19 16NorthForce 39/10/34 40.19 17MH 41/16/39 41.19 18brianh 40/13/40 44.19 19Coff drop 48/15.5/36 45.69 20Don Limb 44/15/40 46.19 21Gremlin 43/17/43 46.19 22Moron_35 46/16.5/40 46.69 23Blockhead3 49.9/16.9/38.1 48.31 24Wlong41 46/16/42 49.19 25jopowa 50.19 26VASCARman 48/16/42 51.19 27Corgini: 46/14.5/43 51.69 28Djane 49/13.5/42 54.69 29Peter Hudson 48/17/48 56.19 30six sigma enigma 48/13/45 57.19 31epona 00 51/16/45 57.19 32Mick 51/15/44 57.19 33RocketScientist: 52/16/44 57.19 34LORWORKER: 56.25/14.75/41.3 60.00 35Dwight Martin 50/15/48 60.19 36Robert. G. Brown, 52/16/48 61.19 37Nancy Haft 52/15.75/48 61.44 38SnowShoe 60/15/40 62.19 39KThiel: 52/14.5/49 63.69 40Dragonfly 55/16.5/50 65.69 41Jim Parkinson, 60/16/45 66.19 42Steven Rachbach 56/15/48 66.19 43Jim Fleming 56/17/52 68.19 44Chart 2000 55/13/50 69.19 45Halpcar2 56/16/52 69.19 46Tim A 56/15/52 70.19 47JeffVayda: 60/14/48 71.19 48Thomas 63/16.25/48.5 72.44 49Safety Agent Man59/16/53. 73.19 50CrisisWhatCrisis 68/14/49 80.19 51ReaganDuBose 60/17/60 80.19 52LoralLong:66/15/55 83.19 53BKPSY 66/16/63 90.19 54AR2BW 65/17/65 90.19 55Tastychap 69/16.9/65 94.25 56ltfequities 72/ 17/65 97.19 57GeneralHQ 73/16.5/ 65 98.69 58Chessen29 76/17 /72 108.19 59ChuckKieger 84/18/77 121.69 60loree 20 120/20/40 122.69 61mstudm 98/13.75/78 139.44 62Noel de Leon 110/16/95 166.19 63Tahoetech 127/17/80 167.19 64E Haiken 125/15/115 202.19 65roskie 186/16/175 322.19 Thanks again to everyone for playing and good luck to all (especially roskie!). I'll report back next month, or earlier if stock price movement warrants. YO&HS RS