To: Nav Toor who wrote (2270 ) 5/22/1999 10:08:00 PM From: Nav Toor Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3896
Here's something I saw on Stockhouse: HIGHLIGHTS Microforum surpasses our revised target price of $5.30. MCF's presence at the Internet and Electronic Commerce Exposition in New York has generated significant US interest and future e-commerce business. We still believe MCF is undervalued compared to its peers, and in light of its recent price appreciation we expect to see more upside on the stock. Financial Forecast and Valuation: We are maintaining our projected revenues of $31M for f1999 and $43.2M for f2000. We are still projecting a net loss per share of $0.09/share f.d. for f1999 and EPS of $0.03 f.d. for f2000. We believe the market is finally realizing the fundamental value of MCF, which was helped by its presence in New York this week. Even at its current price, we believe Microform is still undervalued compared to its Internet-related peers as it is currently trading at a TTM P/S of 11.1 and P/S of 8.5X our forecasted f1999 sales (see Table 1). In light of current market activities, our initial P/S valuations of 2X and 5X were conservative. We are not interested in chasing and continually revising our estimates, however, with the stock receiving valuations closer to what its peers are trading at, we decided to provide a number of benchmarks as a guide to where the stock could possibly be priced. Our price targets and valuations are based on our f2000 revenue projections, on a fully diluted basis. If the stock surpasses these benchmarks, we will make further comments at that time (see Table 2). Table 1 - Commerce Comparables Name Ticker Current Price TTM P/S BCE Emergis Inc IFM $43.50 42.7 Cyberplex Inc CX $7.75 30.4 Doubleclick Inc DCLK $147.00 58.7 Razorfish Inc RAZF $51.50 34.3 Average 41.5 Microforum Inc. MCF $9.85 13.7 Table 2 - Microforum Price Target Valuations P/S Target Price 10 $13.00 15 $19.50 20 $26.00 In light of the euphoria and speculative play in Internet stocks, MCF shares are benefiting from this momentum. Today's volume of 13.4M shares represents about half of the Company's total float, which is significant on any measure. We may expect to see more of this type of day trading as the Company increases its awareness to US investors. In light of our valuations, we believe MCF still has some upside and recommend investors to BUY on any major pullbacks. David Wong © 1999 Canaccord Capital