Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred B. who wrote (60305)	5/22/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

fred, productivity is increasing - not nearly as fast as monetary growth. however, at double digit monetary growth, money supply will double in about 7-8 years. this WILL engender inflation. period. at some point, monetary growth must slow. this will dampen the bull and investor psychology. admittedly, this may not make for a bear. >>That is ingrained in people's psychology. It is going to take a major catalyst to break that circle. I just don't see any such catalyst in the near to mid-term future.<< few see the catalyst, and those that do are lucky. not seeing a catalyst doesn't mean it won't happen. last october was interesting. greenspan, imho, prevented a banking collapse by 1. finding out the derivative exposure of major banks and 2. lowering rates unexpectedly right before options expiry to make those positions very profitable. this is a bail out. did it solve the long term problem or band aid it? my view is he made it worse. why does the imf force countries to stop subsidizing businesses before bailing them out? i guess what is good for the goose is not good for the gander. investing is probability. there are no guarantees. however, the higher the valuations go, the more probability for a big correction or a bear market. i do think that the items you cite will keep the market higher than it otherwise would have been. same with the net and the information access it affords. however, i'm thinking 10-15% or so. not 100%-150%. i'm not rooting for dow 4k - 5k. if that happened, my very good job would be in big jeopardy. i don't want that. this is one reason the irrationality of the bulls concerns me. the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust tends to be. that scares me as this boom is BIG. good luck.