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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chunmun who wrote (23098)	5/21/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: chunmun	Respond to of 74651

forgot to mention TEFLON in my above post. thanks.

To: chunmun who wrote (23098)	5/21/1999 9:43:00 PM
From: taxman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

"a good time for me to get more" it's my largest holding and i'm not selling due in part to confidence expressed on this board that microsoft will exceed earnings expectations. value line has an informative write up which will be updated two weeks from today. regards

To: chunmun who wrote (23098)	5/22/1999 2:15:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

75 seems to be the approximate bottom for this stock. It will be a little unpredictable for 2 to 3 weeks. Beyond that we should see a big rise to approximately 100 sometime in July. Just my bullish guess.

To: chunmun who wrote (23098)	5/23/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: Teflon	Respond to of 74651

chunmun, IMHO, this is one of those rare opportunities to buy MSFT on the cheap. Wait if you must for the trial, though I continue my stance that it is irrelevant in determining the movement in MSFT's share price. Teflon

To: chunmun who wrote (23098)	5/23/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

chunmun, what are your time horizons? If you are a buy and hold type with at least 2-3 year term for holding, I'd say buy MSFT now, throw it in your long-term portfolio and forget about it for a few years. You won't be sorry. I've done that, and I've also traded MSFT - and it's been extremely profitable. Shorter-term, I'm somewhat less bullish than Teflon. I see significant market-related risks. Support is at 74, and then very strong support at 67 1/2. MSFT's option activity would seem to indicate that they are very comfortable with MSFT not breaking 65. The problems, I see are related to the FED "bias" expressed recently. I have my personal opinion about it, but that doesn't matter - what matters is that the market reacts to it. We were scheduled for a large run - which was derailed by the FED. Friday toward the close seemed to indicate that institutions and traders expect the run to resume next week. See the late session "buy" activity bias for MSFT: partners.thomsoninvest.net Punch in the MSFT symbol where it says "Enter Ticker." Click on the MSFT symbol at the bottom of the page under "Pricing Momentum" for more information (as you shouldn't draw conclusions from just one session). Bottom line, the market bias was toward a rally next week. Thus far over the weekend I haven't seen anything that would change that - though news can come out at any moment to change that. Still, even IF we do have a rally the coming week - remember the FED meets at the end of June and that will certainly break any rally momentum. So, I don't see any rally going forward to be a resolution rally. The risk of going lower and hitting support at 74 is significant IMO. Institutional money (as you see from Friday's session in the link above, institutional money represents a great % of trading in MSFT), has been rotating into small and value stocks. The question is will the money come back in a big way into MSFT - and I have my doubts with the FED fears at the end of June. Meanwhile, I unlike many here, do think the trial is a tremendous negative for MSFT share price. All in all, whatever rally happens is not going to be sustained IMO, unless some very positive news coms out of the trial, or MSFT launches some dramatic initiative (telecom deals and WebMD investments won't cut it). So, decide - do you want to buy and hold? If so, you can figure the odds of going below 65 are miniscule. My own TA indicates it won't break 67 1/2, but that's JMHO. In 3 years it won't matter if you bought at 74 or 77 - while the risk of being out of MSFT, should it suddenly explode, on good news, is significant. All in my opinion only - always double-check everything with your own DD. Good luck. Morgan